We go again.
COINCIDENTAL STADIUM of the WEEK
A new series depicting a stadium which corresponds to a play featured in The 7 Best and/or its auxiliary actions to open the show.
- Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX.
LAS VEGAS —Here it is. The 7 Best is here and I’m fired up to get down to business. Last week was a mixed bag. The ATS positions in this competition were of satisfactory result but the sting of losing in the Survivor markets is not one which will soon subside. I mean what else is there to say?
Right then, here are my T7 ATS/Total positions for this weekend in College Football and in the National Football League.
No excuses. I’m out for blood now.
The 7 Best Record: 15-20-0 (16 Points).
Top Choice Record: 2-3
Scoring: 1 point per win, half-point per push, 1.5 points per Top Choice win
— Oklahoma at TEXAS (+1.5)
*(+1.5 -15)*
KEY METRICS
- TEX: Ranks 5th nationally in Scoring Defense (12.0 PPG/A) & 14th in YPG/A 261.4 & 17th in YPP/A (4.3).
- OU: ATS coverage in 6 L13 games (-11% ROI) & TT-Ov conversion in 1 L5 (-43% ROI). The Oklahoma offense is 92nd nationally in 4Q Scoring (5.6). The Sooners ST/KR unit (Kick Return) ranks 135th in Yds/KR (8.0).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the Texas Longhorns getting a point-and-a-half on a neutral field when it plays its classic rival in the Oklahoma Sooners Saturday afternoon in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Let be blunt here: this is the biggest game in the collegiate career of Texas QB Arch Manning to-date? If not now, when? The Oklahoma QB — while I expect him to play — doesn’t sound like he’s 100% and the Longhorns are the more desperate team as we sit here today. Texas must be cleaner with the football as it ranks 133rd in Offensive Penalties (8.8 per) and Oklahoma has the best defense in the country citing Total Defense. But I’m unfazed. It has to be now for Manning and Texas. Getting points, I’m in. If it turns out the Sooners QB doesn’t play, I would lay to -2. It’s Longhorns for me Saturday in the Red River Rivalry.
— Michigan at SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (-2.5)
KEY METRICS
- USC: Offense ranks 3rd nationally in Scoring Offense (48.4), 4th in YPG (565.0) & is best-in-country in YPP (8.5).
- MICH: 111th nationally in Off. Pen. (4.0 per). The defense ranks 81st in both 2Q/PA (8.2) & 4Q/PA (6.2). The Wolverines D ranks 117th in CMP/G (22.4).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the home USC Trojans when it plays the Michigan Wolverines Saturday afternoon at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. While I’m a little concerned about the situation at LT for USC, I think it has enough to beat Michigan at home here. I think Michigan has been overvalued all season. It lost at Oklahoma cleanly and its wins are against New Mexico, Central Michigan, Nebraska (by three) and Wisconsin. I’ll pass on that CV if it’s all the same to you. In a statement game for Southern California, it’s the Trojans for me at anything under a field goal. Fight on!
— INDIANA (+7.5) at Oregon
*(+7.5 -15)
KEY METRICS
- IU: Offense ranks 8th nationally in PPG (47.8), 8th in YPG (538.2) & 7th in YPP (7.5). It ranks 8th as well in Off. Pen (3.8) & 2nd in 3Q scoring (13.2). The Hoosiers D ranks 3rd nationally in PPG/A (9.6) & is T6 or better in 3Q, 4Q PPG/A (0.6, 2.4).
- ORE: 85th nationally in FG% (75%). The Ducks defense ranks 99th in SCK/PG (1.8).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the road, underdog Indiana Hoosiers in collection of +7.5 laying grease when it travels to the Pacific Northwest to face the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium Saturday afternoon in Eugene. Tough assignment, for sure, but why not Indiana? As it turns out, Penn State is soft and not a very good team so who knows just how good the win in Crappy Valley really was. All the Hoosiers do is impress. This is a well coached team with a proper QB and defense. I’m in at anything +6.5 or better. Maybe you even take a little taste of an outright win?
— Patriots at SAINTS (+3.5)
KEY METRICS
- NO: Defense ranks 3/32 in 4Q Scoring (3.4 PA) & 13th in YPP/A (5.4).
- NE: Offense ranks 28th in the NFL in YPC (3.7). The New England defense ranks 25th in YPP/A (5.9) & 30th in PY/CMP (10.9). The unit ranks 28th in Def. Pen. (8.6).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the home New Orleans Saints — who were great to myself and readers last week as the Top Choice pursuant to The 7 Best v5.0 — getting three-and a-half points Sunday afternoon in the Caesars Superdome. I think the Patriots are bing overvalued laying this number on the road after catching Buffalo napping. I can’t get there. As I’ve written previously here, New Orleans plays hard, certainly at home and I feel like no result is off the table here. So I’ll take better than a FG.
— Titans at RAIDERS -4.5
KEY METRICS
- LVR: Offense ranks 8/32 in Off. Pen. (6.2). The defense ranks 5th in 4Q/PA (3.8).
- TEN: Offense ranks 31/32 in PPG (14.6), YPG (233.8) & 32nd in YPP (4.2). The Titans defense ranks 26th in SCK/GM (1.4) & 29th in YPP/A (6.0).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the local Las Vegas Raiders when it hosts then Tennessee Titans Sunday afternoon at Allegiant Stadium. This is Pretty Straightforward: A play against Tennessee in the aftermath of a shock, bogus win last week in Arizona and then having to travel again *and* it’s a play on the desperation of the Raiders. Las Vegas has played some bad football for weeks now. Geno Smith has been very bad. But this an even worse spot for the Titans and a get-right scenario for the Raiders at home, even with the Brock Bowers injury situation. I would try not to lay past -4.5 but that might not be an issue.
— 49ers at BUCCANEERS (-3)
KEY METRICS
- TB: Offense ranks 7/32 in PPG (27.0) & 11th in YPG (353.8). The Buccaneers D ranks 11th in YPG/A (310.8).
- SF: 50% M/L conversion in L10 games. 2H ATS coverage in just 3 L17 (-66% ROI). 49ers offense ranks 22nd in PPG (21.2) & 32/32 in YPC (3.1). Santa Clara (sorry SF) ranks 30th in SCK/GM (1.2 per).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the home Tampa Bay Buccaneers laying a field goal Sunday afternoon at Raymond James Stadium. The inconsistent play of San Francisco and its injury situation is factored in here. It seems in a week-by-week basis you just don’t know who is available for the 49ers. Maybe the win in Los Angeles last Thursday was an aberration? Maybe the Rams just weren’t ready to play? I understand Tampa Bay has injuries of its own. I respect the Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield and I think this is a manageable spot here. I would not lay the -3.5, so get the -3 or better.
TOP CHOICE
— Air Force at UNLV (-6.5)
*(-6.5 -20)*
KEY METRICS
- UNLV: Defense ranks 3rd nationally in Interceptions Per Game (1.8) & 36th in QBR/A. The Rebels offense ranks 39th in YPP (6.4).
- AFA: Ranks 136th nationally in Total Defense (476.6 YPG & 7.7 YPP) & Scoring Defense (37.8 PPG/A). The Falcons rank 129th in Defensive Penalties (7.0 per).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the UNLV Rebels as a -6.5 point favorite laying vigorish when it hosts the Air Force Falcons Saturday afternoon at Allegiant Stadium. This is the worst spot a United States Air Force affiliated unit has faced since Black Thursday in October of 1943 (The Second Schweinfurt Raid). Look it up. The Falcons took a dramatic L at Navy last week and now in the aftermath of that dejection have to go back on the road to play an ascending UNLV team? No way. No thanks. Who scheduled this game for Air Force? Putin? Maybe when the government reopens we can find this information out? Anywho, this schedule spot supercedes a possible let-down spot for UNLV of which I think HC Dan Mullen will have them ready for. I’ll lay anything up to -7.25 (-7 w/ vig) to back local UNLV here. It’s a play on the Rebels for me as the Top Choice pursuant to The 7 Best v6.0.
— Clemson at BOSTON COLLEGE (+14)
I passed on BC in favor of Texas. I think this is a proper buy-low spot on BC after getting pounded by Pittsburgh last week and I’m quizzical as to how anybody would want to lay -14 with Clemson.
CFB/NFL TV MAPS
SURVIVOR UPDATE
I was in several low-profile survivor contests. I am not anymore. Last week was an unsuccessful Survivor market entry with the Arizona Cardinals disgracing themselves, the organization in-total, its former players and staff and its fans by losing to Tennessee and cowering-out of Survival markets in shocking, abysmal fashion. This concludes my business making market predictions for others in this portfolio.
AUXILIARIES
*The following Teaser was played at various points throughout the week when at my point of numeric satisfaction. Teasers are 5-4 this term.*
Two TSR MKT, TOTW-worthy actions this week. I am looking to rebound after a disasterclass in the TSR MKT last week. I didn’t like the Teaser card this week.
*2TM 7PT CFB SGT*
A&M -.5
UF/A&M ⬆️40.5
A rare dip into CFB for the Teaser of the Week. I do like this one. I expect A&M to have enough to get a win at home with both teams going up-and-down the field in the process.
*3TM 7PT TSR*
BRONCOS pk
SAINTS +10.5
FALCONS +11.5
As for the NFL Teaser for this week, it’s Pretty Straightforward. I’ll back Denver to beat a bad New York team in London and I’ll opt for a better landing zone with New Orleans and Atlanta.
FUTURISTICS REVISITED
- NFL Season Win Totals
— ARIZONA CARDINALS OVER 8.5 WINS (-25)
📚: FanDuel
UPDATE: This franchise made a lifetime enemy in me last week. That’s all I’ll say.
— LAS VEGAS RAIDERS OVER 6.5 WINS (-40)
📚: FanDuel
*NFC Championship*
— GREEN BAY PACKERS (9.5, 7:1)
UPDATE: Bad loss in Cleveland three weeks ago. The tie in Dallas two weeks ago was really weird. Nothing is over. Nothing is settled. But the Bye came at a good time. This team needs to refocus and reprioritize and get back to playing team, complimentary football. And that starts with a home game this Sunday at venerable Lambeau Field in a game versus the Bengals it should win.
REFERENCES
- X
- Various individual and entity social media accounts on X as cited in usage of this work
- Grok
- Google Gemini
- Pro Football Reference
- CFB Reference
- Team Rankings
- Covers
- NFL+
- NFL Pro
- Riddell Sports
- Schutt Sports
- 506 Sports
- Circa Sports
- FanDuel Sports
- STN Sports
- Oddschecker US
- Getty Images
- Darkseid Sports Intellectual Properties
CREATOR’S NOTE: This week’s 7 Best used odds from Circa Sports on the day of publish (today) and via FanDuel. The whole premise behind this arduous challenge is to play with Friday numbers. In the opinion of this author, Circa Sports serves as the premier destination in the brick-and-mortar Sportsbook genre in American Gaming and is a certain travel destination for tourists who visit the great city of Las Vegas. FanDuel has a sensational overall betting menu and is at the top echelon of soccer betting in the American market. I have no current association with either entity.
This competition was built to mirror the CFFI contest. Recently, I caught the host the program use BS lines for the Miami – Florida game. And sadly it’s not the first or second time the network— known for plagiarism and cooking books for its talent — have done something like this before. Therefore, my focus is on Friday numbers, regardless of book. Unlike others in the EPL space, I will only share numbers and bets which are widely available to you. If they won’t be professional enough to stick to the 10 a.m./Friday jive, why should I?
DISCLAIMER: Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the NCAA and/or any of the programs, athletes, social media accounts, sports betting entities, universities, football programs or corporate entities digitally written about or depicted in corresponding images. The author of this writing is an ardent and serious College Football and Miami Hurricanes fan since the Jimmy Johnson regime.
DISCLAIMER: Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the National Football League, the Green Bay Packers, its players, social media presences, sports betting entities and/or corporate entities associated with the team(s) either in written form or depicted in corresponding images. There is no association with any other person, social media account, media entity, corporate entity, etc. The author of this writing is a third-generation Packers fan, a former credentialed-media member covering the franchise, an amateur historian focused on the franchise and is +EV career betting the franchise lifetime. He is a passionate and very serious Packers and National Football League fan. His next game at Lambeau Field will be his 56th.
BEYOND THE ACTION
SATURDAY SUPER 5
With the College Basketball season fast approaching, get to know the Super 5. It’s back for yet another term as is other featured plays in the market such as the Teaser Special and the world-famous Potency Play.
TOTALLY RANDOM SPORTS PHOTO
Darkseid Sports 
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