We go again.
LAS VEGAS — Here it is. The Premier League weekend is back and Matchweek 12 is all systems go. From the betting perspective, MW11 had “really weird” results, with a 1-2 ledger including an incredible, bizarre and sketchy loss on the *Best Bet by Darkseid Sports*.
Anywho, moving on, I’m bullish on my chances for this weekend. Here is the deal for MW12:
THE TIMELINE
COINCEDENTAL STADIUM of the WEEK
A series depicting a stadium which corresponds to a play featured in The Premier League Prologue actions to open the show.
- Old Trafford, The Theatre of Dreams, Manchester, England
MW12 POSITIONS PL
*Best Bet by Darkseid Sports* RECORD: 4-5-2 (Record displayed in Win-Loss-Push format)
2025-26 PUBLISHED BET RECORD: 15-17-2, 44.1% w/Push, 46.9% w/out (All plays, W-L-P format)
- Straight Bets: 15-11-2 (53.6%)
- Parlays: 0-5 (?!?)
- Proposition (SoT, ATG, etc.): 0-1
These results are unacceptable, embarrassing and so far beneath established standards. I hate it. It’s time to go on a run.
— ⚽️: “THE BTTS SPECIAL”
- MUNEVE BTTS (-30)
📚: William Hill/Caesars
KEY METRICS
- MUN: Ranks 5/20 in Aggregate xG (18.2), 6th in Aggregate npxG (15.9), T4/20 in GLS/90 (1.55), 5th in xG/90 (1.66) & 6th in npxG/90 (1.44). The Red Devils are 9/20 in Progressive Carries (190) & 7/20 in Progressive Passes (415). Man Utd is conceding 1.64 GLS/90 (ranks 14/20) & is 17/20 in GK SV% (60%).
- EVE: Ranks 9/20 in Aggregate xG (14.8), 8th in Aggregate npxG (14.0), 9th in xG/90 (1.34) & 8th in npxG/90 (1.27). The Toffees are conceding 1.18 GLS/90.
KEY OPINION
This is a play on the fact United’s attacking metrics says it will score here — as does the Toffees — while simultaneously expecting a David Moyes-led side to have something when playing at Old Trafford.
MY TAKE
The BTTS Special has seen mixed results thus far but I’m undeterred in the pursuit of delivering winners. Not sure what I’m supposed to say really re: my take on The BTTS Special: I think both parties can score a goal in its respective match.
— ⚽️: FULSUN UNDER 2.5 GOALS (-40)
📚: William Hill/Caesars
KEY METRICS:
- FUL: 19/20 in Goals Scored (9) & 19/20 in GLS/90 (0.82). Fulham is 16/20 in xG/90 (0.97) & npxG/90 (0.97). The Cottagers rank 5/20 in npxG-A/90 (1.10) & 9/20 in GK SV% (70.8%).
- SUN: Top-of-Table in GK SV% (79.2%) & is T4/20 in GA/90 (0.91). Sunderland is 6/20 in xGA/90 (1.20).
KEY OPINION
- I just think there is value in backing the Under (2.5) here at any sort of respectable price. I try not to lay past -60 in my actions. Simply, the eye test and metrics say this is an under.
MY TAKE
It’s a play going under the total, at 2.5 match goals herein, when Fulham hosts Sunderland Saturday afternoon at Craven Cottage in West London. Fulham just doesn’t create or score. Sunderland is stout defensively and doesn’t score robustly, usually. Let’s keep it that simple here and trust the metrics. Grab Under 2.5. I don’t play Under 2’s unless a Trophy is awarded said match, as a general soccer betting rule. Play to -50 on Under 2.5.
GL🤝Play Responsibly
— ⚽️BB: ARSTOT UNDER 2.5 GOALS (+05)
📚: Boyd Gaming/FanDuel
KEY METRICS
- ARS: Top-of-Table in: GA (5), Aggregate xGA (6.0), Aggregate npxgGA (6.0), Progressive Passes Against (264), GLS/90 Against (0.45), xGA/90 (0.55), npxGA/90 (0.55) and Clean Sheet% (63.6%).
- TOT: Top-of-Table in Progressive Carries Against (139). T4/20 in GA (9) & GLS/90-A (0.91). Spurs are 3rd in GK SV% (77.3%) & 7th in CS% (36.4%).
KEY OPINION
- I see this as a spot where anything even money or better and it’s a try on the Under. Arsenal is arguably the best defensive team in the world and Spurs have been a rock as well all term in the same regard. I’ll rely on it.
MY TAKE
For the *Best Bet by Darkseid Sports* for MW12, it’s a play going under the total, at 2.5 match goals herein, when home Arsenal opposes Tottenham Hotspur Sunday afternoon in a delicious North London Derby at Emirates Stadium. I don’t mean to dumb it down but it’s Pretty Straightforward. The Gunners are the best there is defensively. Spurs have been really good defensively. I don’t get how that translates to many goals. I actually feel like Spurs will have to play possession, winning on-the-counter and in set-piece play to have any success, which obviously is arduous against Arsenal. Spurs must defend the set-piece play here. I know both sides have injuries, as do many clubs entering December. What Arsenal does on the regular should be enough here from a GA view. And again, as common theme on this Release Day: trust the metrics and what you watch on the week-to-week. So far all that, ARSTOT UNDER 2.5 MATCH GOALS is your *Best Bet by Darkseid Sports* for the Premier League Matchweek 12.
FC Record YTD: 5-3
— ⚽️: CRY 90+ (-05)
I passed on this to focus on other positions. There was reservation b/c I don’t want to be that guy fading lowly Wolves on the regular. That takes zero skill and handicapping prowess.
MANCHESTER UNITED MINUTES
This should get done expressly.
PREMIER LEAGUE MINUTES
BEYOND THE TABLE
You can get the Premier League Table anywhere. It’s still superfluous at MW12. I’ll check it out in January. But a Table built on xG is something we can use for Sports Investment purposes in the now and Squawka has done solid, practical work in bringing us this PL Table built on xG.
https://www.squawka.com/en/features/xg-table-premier-league-2025-26/
FUTURISTICS REVISITED
Follow me on X. Do it now.
REFERENCES:
- X
- Various individual and entity social media accounts on X as cited in this work
- Peacock
- USA Network
- NBC Sports
- FB Ref
- Opta Analyst
- DataMB
- Transfermarkt
- Squawka
- Grok
- Google Gemini
- NBC Sports Soccer
- CBS Sports App
- William Hill/Caesars
- FanDuel Sportsbook
- Getty Images
- Darkseid Sports Intellectual Properties
DISCLAIMER: The purveyor of Darkseid Sports (me) and the author of this writing (also me) has no affiliation, whatsoever, with Manchester United, the Premier League, any of the above athletes, managers, media entities, sports betting entities, social media accounts and/or any other corporate entity, either portrayed in written form or depicted in corresponding images. The author of this writing is a passionate and very serious Manchester United and Premier League fan.
INDUSTRY NOTE: I put considerable time and effort into this. Being the best is a process. Don’t plagiarize me, please. It’s already bad enough I’m totally excluded in the space yet have to be subjected to absolute hacks who get the run I don’t. As of this writing I have not seen any person or entity share the plays I have. So that makes me the source material. Any sharing or touting of my plays should include credit to Darkseid Sports. It’s easy. Failure to do so is an explicit proclamation of a gross lack of professional integrity on your part. I am also available to appear on your platform either via phone interview or in digitally written segment to feature my thoughts and selections, FYI.
Sports is sensationally prohibited.
Darkseid Sports 
Leave a comment