We go again.
COINCIDENTAL STADIUM of the WEEK
A series depicting a stadium which corresponds to a play featured in The 7 Best and/or its auxiliary actions to open the show.
- Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA.
LAS VEGAS —Here it is. The 7 Best is back and I’m fired up to get down to business. Last week was unsatisfactory with a 2-5, 1-0 Top Choice ledger. There were three small-margin losses last week but it’s superfluous now. Moves must be made to stay in the competition. It’s CUT season over at the CFFI, so when my Point total doesn’t meet their CUT line, well then, let’s just say it’s College Basketball season here.
Anywho, here are my T7 ATS/Total positions for this weekend throughout College Football and the National Football League.
The 7 Best Record: 32-38 (34 Points)
Top Choice Record: 4-6
Scoring: 1 point per win, half-point per push, 1.5 points per Top Choice win
— Notre Dame at PITT (+12)
KEY METRICS
- PITT: 7-3 ATS L10. TT-OV conversion in L5 home games (83% ROI). The PITT defense is best-in-nation in YPC/A (2.4) & 3rd nationally in RY/A (80.7 per).
- ND: 4-5-1 ATS L10. TT-OV conversion in just 1 L5 games (-61% ROI). The Fighting Irish defense ranks 112th nationally in Def. Pen. (7.3) & 115th in Def. Pen./YDS (65.1).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the home Pittsburgh Panthers in reception of 12 points herein when it faces the Notre Dame Fighting Irish Saturday afternoon at Acrisure Stadium. I just think this is a tad too many points here. PITT is capable. The rush defense is strong. It has won 5 straight. It’s 5-1 in ACC play and playing for something. For me, Notre Dame leaves something to be desired. Who is its best win against? USC? No thanks. Have your parachute ready. We’ll try to land inside 12 with PITT come Saturday. Play to +11.5.
— Oklahoma at ALABAMA (-6)
KEY METRICS
- OU: 4-5-1 ATS L10. TT-OV conversion in just 3 L9 (-27% ROI) & ATS coverage in just 6 L12 (-4% ROI). OU offensive ranks (nationally): 83rd in YPG (374.2), 84th in YPP (5.5), 95th in Sacks Allowed (2.2 per), 99th in Penalties (7.0), 107th in Pen./YDS (63.1) & 121st in the country in 4Q Scoring (4.4).
- ALA: 6-3-1 ATS L10. ATS coverage in L7 home games (91% ROI) & Moneyline satisfaction in its L5 at home (19% ROI). The Tide defense ranks 14th nationally in PPG/A (17.2) & 17th in YPG/A (303.8). The offense (specifically QB Ty Simpson) ranks 13th in QBR (162.8) & 15th in the country in Passing Yards Per Game (291.2).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the home Alabama Crimson Tide laying 6 points when it hosts the Oklahoma Sooners Saturday afternoon at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. I’m not as high on Oklahoma as others in the space are. In my opinion, they’ve descended as the year has gone on. Meanwhile, all Alabama has done is get better since the fluke loss to FSU in its opener. Let’s not overthink or sensationalize it: play the better team with the better QB and the better HC at home in a revenge spot (see last season). Grab -6, play to -7.
— Texas at GEORGIA (-6)
KEY METRICS
- TEX: 2-7-1 ATS L10. ATS coverage in just 4 L16 games (-52% ROI) & TT-OV conversion in just 3 L9 overall (-40% ROI). The Longhorns offense ranks 73rd nationally in YPG (381.4). It ranks 127th in Off. Pen. (8.1) & 112th in Off. Pen./YDS (66.1). The Texas Special Teams is 129th nationally in YDS/KOR (16.1).
- UGA: M/L satisfaction in 9 L11 (17% ROI) & TT-OV conversion in 3 L5 (12% ROI). The Georgia defense ranks 18th nationally in YPG/A (310.8), 24th in PPG/A (19.8) & 30th in YPP/A (5.0). UGA QB’s rank 12th in the country in CMP% (68.4%).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the home Georgia Bulldogs laying 6 points when it hosts the Texas Longhorns between the hedges Saturday evening at Sanford Stadium in Athens. I think Texas has underachieved all season relative to its preseason hype and expectation. The QB hasn’t been as good as advertised…let’s just come out and say it. Georgia is battle tested and at home here. I just think I have the better team and HC. Beyond that I don’t really know what to say. To say the State of Georgia owes me one is the understatement of a lifetime. Grab -6.
— Seattle at RAMS (-3)
KEY METRICS
- SEA: The Seahawks offense is 29th in the NFL in Yards Per Carry (3.8), 32nd in Offensive Fumbles (1.0 per game) & 26th in 4Q Scoring (5.1). The Seattle defense ranks 25/32 in Def. Pen. (7.3) & 27/32 in Def. Pen./YDS (60.1).
- LAR: 8-2 ATS L10. The Rams offense is 5th in the NFL in YPG (373.3). It is best-in-league in Off. Pen. (4.6) & 2nd in Off. Pen./YDS (38.4). The Rams defense is 2/32 in PPG/A (17.0).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the home Los Angeles Rams laying a field goal when it hosts the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC West clash Sunday afternoon at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. A proper game this. Two good teams. Two good teams playing well. Both are 7-2 and on four-game win streaks. Full disclosure, there isn’t much metrically separating the two. I’ll side with LA citing the level the QB is playing at, (the SEA QB has been special too). I think I have the better HC (a common theme in this T7B) and the Rams are at home. No jive, play to -3.5.
— LIONS (+3) at Philadelphia
KEY METRICS
- DET: M/L satisfaction in 7 L9 road games (26% ROI). Lions offense ranks: 2nd in PPG (31.4), 1st in QBR (116.3), 1st in CMP% (73.6%), 4th in YPP (6.3) & 6th in YPG (372.4). The Lions defense is 4/32 in Sacks (3.3), 7th in YPG/A (294.0) & 9th in YPP/A (5.3).
- PHI: Eagles defensive ranks: 23rd in Sacks (2.1), 20th in YPG/A (327.9) & 28th in Yards Per Completion Allowed (10.5). The PHI offense is 26th in Sacks Allowed (2.8), 24th in Passing Yards (191.7 per) & 23rd in YPG (303.2).
MY TAKE
It’s a play backing the visiting Detroit Lions getting a field goal when it opposes the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday Night at Lincoln Financial Field. This is a play against the short week for Philadelphia and I’m thinking the Eagles are ripe for a letdown following its MNF win vs. Green Bay. If we’re keeping it a buck, I’d tell you Detroit has been better and more consistent than Philadelphia this season. With the DET QB playing at the level he is, I’ll try the Lions here. Again, I likely have the better HC, again. I definitely like the Detroit offense versus the Philadelphia defense. Grab the +3. At +2.5 it’s still a play, but I like it more in the Teaser Market. It’s Detroit for me Sunday night and maybe it should be for you too. Corresponding M/L is warranted here. Grab a dusting of Lions outright.
— BUCCANEERS/BILLS OVER 46 POINTS
KEY METRICS
- TB: Game Total OV satisfaction in 12 L20 overall (15% ROI). The Buccaneers offense ranks 11/32 in PPG (24.4).
- BUF: TT-OV conversion in 13 L22 overall (11% ROI). The Bills offense ranks 6/32 in PPG (27.6). The Bills are also 2/32 in YPG (384.4) & 3/32 in YPP (6.3).
- My xAAPT:48
MY TAKE
It’s a play going over the total, at 46 points herein, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers face the Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY. Josh Allen vs. Baker Mayfield. A very manageable number. Two capable offensive teams. Certain trends and metrics say the total should go over. I learned my lesson trying to go under on Tampa Bay games last week. I won’t make the same mistake this week. Play to 47.
TOP CHOICE
— Iowa at SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (-6.5)
KEY METRICS
- IOWA: Offense is 122nd nationally in YPG (309.1) & 102nd in YPP (5.0). The Iowa passing game ranks 134th in the country in YDS/CMP (9.2). The offense also ranks 105th in 3Q Scoring (4.0).
- USC: The Trojans defense ranks 44th nationally in PPG/A (21.8 & 47th in YPG/A (346.8). The USC offense is best-in-nation in YPP (7.6), ranks 6th nationally in YPG (503.2) & 9th in the country in PPG (39.6).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the home USC Trojans laying 6.5 points when it hosts the Iowa Hawkeyes Saturday afternoon at the LA Coliseum as the Top Choice pursuant to The 7 Best v11.0 I know at first glance this seems like too many points but I can’t get there with Iowa. I was on the Hawkeyes last week. I just think it ran its race trying to beat Oregon and now having to go on the road, to the West Coast, to play a quality opponent in the immediate aftermath of said loss is a bridge too far. I have the better QB, the better offense and we’re at home. Ok I’m sold. I’m thinking Iowa won’t have it Saturday in a letdown spot. Grab -6.5. It’s SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA for me as the Top Choice pursuant to The 7 Best v11.0.
T7B First Cut Record: 6-4
— Dallas at RAIDERS (+3.5)
I passed on Las Vegas to focus on other positions. I mean there has to be some reservation in backing the Raiders, right? Mind you, I’m still (albeit barely) involved in the Season Win Total (Over) market with LVR.
CFB/NFL TV MAPS
SURVIVOR UPDATE
I was in several low-profile survivor contests. I am not anymore. Week 5 was an unsuccessful Survivor market entry with the Arizona Cardinals disgracing themselves, the organization in-total, its former players and staff and its fans by losing to the Tennessee Titans and cowering-out of Survival markets in shocking, abysmal fashion. This concludes my business making market predictions for others in this portfolio.
I shared my “Would-be Survivor” selection before kickoff on Sundays and said I would do the same until a 2nd, final exclusion. The series of posts was exclusive to my X page. Sadly, said final ending came last week.
The WBS play was unsuccessful with Detroit in WK9. This concludes my Survivor Market contents for the 2025-26 NFL season.
AUXILIARIES
*The following Teasers were played at various points throughout the week when at my point of numeric satisfaction. Teasers are 10-12 this term.*
Two teasers this week.
*2TM 6PT TSR*
PACKERS -1
BEARS +8.5
As for the NFL Teaser for this week, it’s Pretty Straightforward. I’ll move Chicago up and Green Bay down.
*3TM 7PT TSR*
BUCCANEERS/BILLS OVER 39.5
BRONCOS +11
RAIDERS +10.5
I’ll move both AFC West combatants up, clearing 5 key numbers including one foundational number. The total teased here clears 5 key numbers too.
FUTURISTICS REVISITED
- NFL Season Win Totals
— ARIZONA CARDINALS OVER 8.5 WINS (-25)
📚: FanDuel
UPDATE: This franchise made a lifetime enemy in me back in Week 5. That’s all I’ll say.
— LAS VEGAS RAIDERS OVER 6.5 WINS (-40)
📚: FanDuel
*NFC Championship*
— GREEN BAY PACKERS (9.5, 7:1)
UPDATE: It’s over. At least this happened early enough in the portfolio timeline where I can make corresponding “hedge” investments. Stay positive, right?
This team is lost right now. How bad was that offensively in Philadelphia? Having that said, I expect Green Bay to handle a bad, injured NYG team which is in Next Season Mode. A key stretch of the season now…
Follow me on X for legit, objective and non-cookie-cutter analysis on the Green Bay Packers.
REFERENCES
- X
- Various individual and entity social media accounts on X as cited in usage of this work
- Grok
- Google Gemini
- Pro Football Reference
- CFB Reference
- Team Rankings
- Covers
- NFL+
- NFL Pro
- Riddell Sports
- Schutt Sports
- 506 Sports
- Fox Sports
- CBS Sports
- CBS Sports App
- Real Sports App
- Circa Sports
- FanDuel Sports
- STN Sports
- Oddschecker US
- Getty Images
- Darkseid Sports Intellectual Properties
CREATOR’S NOTE: This week’s 7 Best used odds from Circa Sports on the day of publish (today) and via FanDuel. The whole premise behind this arduous challenge is to play with Friday numbers. In the opinion of this author, Circa Sports serves as the premier destination in the brick-and-mortar Sportsbook genre in American Gaming and is a certain travel destination for tourists who visit the great city of Las Vegas. FanDuel has a sensational overall betting menu and is at the top echelon of soccer betting in the American market. I have no current association with either entity.
This competition was built to mirror the CFFI contest. Some weeks ago, I caught the host the program use BS lines for the Miami – Florida game. And sadly it’s not the first or second time the network— well known for plagiarism and cooking books (fabricating results) for its talent — have done something like this before. It’s how they operate over there. Therefore, my focus is on Friday numbers, regardless of book. Unlike others in the EPL space, I will only share numbers and bets which are widely available to you. If they won’t be professional enough to stick to the 10 a.m./Friday jive, why should I?
DISCLAIMER: Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the NCAA and/or any of the programs, athletes, social media accounts, sports betting entities, universities, football programs or corporate entities digitally written about or depicted in corresponding images. The author of this writing is an ardent and serious College Football and Miami Hurricanes fan since the Jimmy Johnson regime.
DISCLAIMER: Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the National Football League, the Green Bay Packers, its players, social media presences, sports betting entities and/or corporate entities associated with the team(s) either in written form or depicted in corresponding images. There is no association with any other person, social media account, media entity, corporate entity, etc. The author of this writing is a third-generation Packers fan, a former credentialed-media member covering the franchise, an amateur historian focused on the franchise and is +EV career betting the franchise lifetime. He is a passionate and very serious Packers and National Football League fan. His next game at Lambeau Field will be his 56th.
BEYOND THE ACTION
SATURDAY SUPER 5
With the College Basketball season now here, get to know the Super 5. It’s back for yet another term as is other featured plays in the market such as the Teaser Special and the world-famous Potency Play. It’s a fluid situation with its debut. I’m thinking sometime around the time T7B would be eliminated pursuant to the CFFI or when the CFB regular season ends. TBD. UPDATE: I could be eliminated this week… hint hint.
TOTALLY RANDOM SPORTS PHOTO
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