We go again.
COINCIDENTAL STADIUM of the WEEK
A series depicting a stadium which corresponds to a play featured in The 7 Best and/or its auxiliary actions to open the show.
- Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH.
LAS VEGAS —Here it is. The 7 Best is back and I’m fired up to get down to business. Last week was some bad business with a 2-5, 0-1 Top Choice ledger. My sole purpose is to get back on track and somehow right the ship with the feature play.
Right then, here are my T7 ATS/Total positions for this weekend in College Football and in the National Football League.
The 7 Best Record: 26-30 (27 Points)
Top Choice Record: 2-6
Scoring: 1 point per win, half-point per push, 1.5 points per Top Choice win
— ARMY/AIR FORCE OVER 48 POINTS
KEY METRICS
- Army: 4th nationally in Rushing Yards (275.6 per). The Black Knights rank 2nd in both Off. Pen (3.1) & Off. Pen./YDS (24.9). The West Point defense ranks 133rd in the country in Sacks (0.9 per).
- Air Force: 16th nationally in YPG (472.1) & 15th in YPP (6.9). The Falcons defense ranks 131st in PPG/A (37.3), 136th in YPG/A (484.1), 135th in YPP/A (7.8) & 109th in Sacks (1.6).
- My xAAPT: 57
MY TAKE
It’s a play going over the total, at 48 points herein, when the Army Black Knights face the Air Force Falcons Saturday afternoon at Falcon Stadium in Colorado Springs. Full discourse, my first inclination was to back Army but the R&D led me to the Over. Both offenses can score (relative to the opposing defense). Both defenses are bad. I can’t get there with anything other than the Over. No jive, play to 50.5.
— MIAMI/SMU OVER 50.5 POINTS
KEY METRICS
- UM: 37th nationally in PPG (34.0), 53rd in YPG (409.0) & 44th in YPP (6.1).
- SMU: Defense ranks 109th in the country in YPP/A (399.0). The Mustangs’ offense ranks 36th in PPG (31.4).
- My xAAPT: 54
MY TAKE
It’s a play going over the total, at 50.5 points herein, when the Miami Hurricanes oppose the Southern Methodist University Mustangs Saturday afternoon at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. I think the number is manageable pursuant to the teams and the situation involved. As a Miami fan, I really like where the offense is, the 1st half against Stanford not withstanding. I’m not sure how the SMU defense matches-up. The defense is superb but is due for regression. It’s a road game for UM. It’s Homecoming at SMU. This just feels like an Over to me. Have fun, play to 51.
— PANTHERS/PACKERS OVER 44 POINTS
KEY METRICS
- CAR: 5-3 O/U. Game Total Over satisfaction in 13 L20 (24% ROI).
- GB: 4Q/OV conversion in 12 L17 (35% ROI). Packers offense ranks 5th in the NFL in PPG (27.6) & 8/32 in both YPG (359.1) & YPP (6.0).
- My xAAPT: 47
MY TAKE
It’s a play going over the total, at 44 points herein, when the Green Bay Packers host the Carolina Panthers Sunday afternoon at venerable Lambeau Field in Green Bay. Packers totals have been good to myself and readers lately…why mess with a good thing? Once again we are tasked with a manageable number. I love (no pun intended) where the Green Bay offense is. It’s never as easy as you think for any defense when facing lesser opponents. I’ll try the Over again here. Play to 45.
— BEARS (-2.5) at Cincinnati
KEY METRICS
- CHI: TT-OV conversion in 13 L20 (24% ROI). The offense ranks 15th in PPG (24.0), 12th in YPG (350.1) & 13th in YPP (5.8).
- CIN: 32/32 in PPG/A (31.6) & YPG/A (407.9). The defense also ranks 30th in YPP/A (6.4) & 28th in Sacks (1.4).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the visiting Chicago Bears laying two-and-a-half points when it plays the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday afternoon at Paycor Stadium. I can’t get there with this being a letdown spot for the Bears. The Bengals are really bad. I know Chicago has injures. So do many teams. Let’s keep this simple and back the better team inside a field goal.
— 49ers (-2.5) at New York (N)
KEY METRICS
- SF: Offense ranks 13th in the NFL in YPG (348.6), 6th in Off. Pen. (6.0) & 8th in Off. Pen./YDS (48.5).
- NYG: Defense ranks 29/32 in YPG/A (382.4), 27th in YPP/A (6.1) & 26th in PPG/A (26.9).
MY TAKE
It’s a play backing the visiting San Francisco 49ers laying two-and-a-half points when it travels east to play in the early slate of games against the New York Football Giants Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. Much like the previous play cited, I again can’t get there with this being an expected letdown spot for the better team superfluous to injury. Both teams have injuries so that excuse need not apply. The Giants have to be in next-season mode. Again, keeping it simple, I’ll back the better team, the 49ers, coming off a loss last week, at anything under a field goal.
— Kansas City at BILLS (+2)
KEY METRICS
- KC: Defense ranks 22nd in YPC/A (4.4) & 28/32 in CMP%/A (69.5%).
- BUF: 2H/ATS satisfaction in 15 L19 (46% ROI) & TT-OV conversion in 14 L22 (19% ROI). The Bills offense ranks 2/32 in YPP (6.3) & leads the NFL in Rushing Yards (164.4 per).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the home Buffalo Bills getting two points when it hosts the Kansas City Chiefs in one of the NFL’s signature games Sunday afternoon at Highmark Stadium. I know the Chiefs are quality. I know Kansas City is hot. I respect it. But I can’t back it here. If not now, when for Buffalo? It’s a tall order for sure but getting points in an undervalued role, I’ll take the bait and back the Bills as a home dog. Anything over +1 and I’m in.
TOP CHOICE
— SOUTH CAROLINA/OLE MISS UNDER 55.5 POINTS
KEY METRICS
- SCAR: Game Total Under conversion in four L5 away games (53% ROI) & TT-UN satisfaction in 5 L8 (16% ROI). The Gamecocks offense ranks 117th nationally in PPG (20.4), 127th in YPG (302.1) & 124th in YPP (4.9). The offense is 132nd in the country in Sacks Allowed (3.5 per).
- MISS: Defense ranks 55th nationally in PPG/A (23.0). The ST Unit ranks 51st in the country in FG%/A (73.3%).
- My xAAPT: 50
MY TAKE
It’s a play going under the total, at 55.5 points herein, when the South Carolina Gamecocks play the Ole Miss Rebels Saturday afternoon at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford. Many of the takes from last week’s Top Choice (T7B v8.0) apply here, which didn’t convert only b/c the pinball machine went-off, weirdly, during the 4Q of SCAR/ALA. This time around I get a higher total to go Under. I don’t know how much scoring SCAR will do against the MISS defense. I don’t think the offense is any good and the OL is a major hindrance. So again, it’s a play on SCAR/MISS UNDER 55.5 for me as the Top Choice pursuant to The 7 Best v9.0. Play to 54 and say no more.
T7B First Cut Record: 5-3
— WVU at HOUSTON (-13.5)
I passed on Houston to focus on other positions. It should be good. I detest this spot for the Mountaineers.
CFB/NFL TV MAPS
SURVIVOR UPDATE
I was in several low-profile survivor contests. I am not anymore. Week 5 was an unsuccessful Survivor market entry with the Arizona Cardinals disgracing themselves, the organization in-total, its former players and staff and its fans by losing to Tennessee and cowering-out of Survival markets in shocking, abysmal fashion. This concludes my business making market predictions for others in this portfolio.
I shared my “Would-be Survivor” selection before kickoff last Sunday and will do the same until a 2nd, final exclusion. This series of posts is exclusive to my X page. Follow me there.
The WBS play last week was successful with New England.
AUXILIARIES
*The following Teasers were played at various points throughout the week when at my point of numeric satisfaction. Teasers are 8-8 this term.*
Three teasers this week.
*2TM 7PT CFB SGT*
ARMY +8.5
ARMY/AIR FORCE ⬆️41
Another dip into CFB for the Teaser of the Week honors. I’ll cut through 6 key numbers (48, 47, 46, 45, 44, 43) and push on a 7th (41) moving 48 to 41. I’ll move ARMY up to +8.5 and I’m unsure the right team is favored to begin with.
*3TM 6PT TSR*
LIONS -2.5
BILLS +8
CARDINALS +8.5
As for the NFL Teaser for this week, it’s Pretty Straightforward. I’ll move the Lions down, the Bills and Cardinals up in this 3TM 6PT’er. Go get +EV pricing.
*3TM 7PT TSR*
PACKERS -6
CHARGERS -2.5
BRONCOS +8.5
I’ll move Green Bay down clearing 5 key numbers (13, 11, 10, 8, 7) and push on a 6th. I’ll move Los Angeles down to under a field goal. I’ll move Denver up. Why is Houston favored?
FUTURISTICS REVISITED
- NFL Season Win Totals
— ARIZONA CARDINALS OVER 8.5 WINS (-25)
📚: FanDuel
UPDATE: This franchise made a lifetime enemy in me some weeks ago. That’s all I’ll say.
— LAS VEGAS RAIDERS OVER 6.5 WINS (-40)
📚: FanDuel
*NFC Championship*
— GREEN BAY PACKERS (9.5, 7:1)
UPDATE: Last week was just a special win in Pittsburgh. I let you supply the extra narratives.
Follow me on X for legit, objective and non-cookie-cutter analysis on the Green Bay Packers.
REFERENCES
- X
- Various individual and entity social media accounts on X as cited in usage of this work
- Grok
- Google Gemini
- Pro Football Reference
- CFB Reference
- Team Rankings
- Covers
- NFL+
- NFL Pro
- Riddell Sports
- Schutt Sports
- 506 Sports
- Fox Sports
- CBS Sports
- CBS Sports App
- Real Sports App
- Circa Sports
- FanDuel Sports
- STN Sports
- Oddschecker US
- Getty Images
- Darkseid Sports Intellectual Properties
CREATOR’S NOTE: This week’s 7 Best used odds from Circa Sports on the day of publish (today) and via FanDuel. The whole premise behind this arduous challenge is to play with Friday numbers. In the opinion of this author, Circa Sports serves as the premier destination in the brick-and-mortar Sportsbook genre in American Gaming and is a certain travel destination for tourists who visit the great city of Las Vegas. FanDuel has a sensational overall betting menu and is at the top echelon of soccer betting in the American market. I have no current association with either entity.
This competition was built to mirror the CFFI contest. Recently, I caught the host the program use BS lines for the Miami – Florida game. And sadly it’s not the first or second time the network— known for plagiarism and cooking books for its talent — have done something like this before. Therefore, my focus is on Friday numbers, regardless of book. Unlike others in the EPL space, I will only share numbers and bets which are widely available to you. If they won’t be professional enough to stick to the 10 a.m./Friday jive, why should I?
DISCLAIMER: Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the NCAA and/or any of the programs, athletes, social media accounts, sports betting entities, universities, football programs or corporate entities digitally written about or depicted in corresponding images. The author of this writing is an ardent and serious College Football and Miami Hurricanes fan since the Jimmy Johnson regime.
DISCLAIMER: Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the National Football League, the Green Bay Packers, its players, social media presences, sports betting entities and/or corporate entities associated with the team(s) either in written form or depicted in corresponding images. There is no association with any other person, social media account, media entity, corporate entity, etc. The author of this writing is a third-generation Packers fan, a former credentialed-media member covering the franchise, an amateur historian focused on the franchise and is +EV career betting the franchise lifetime. He is a passionate and very serious Packers and National Football League fan. His next game at Lambeau Field will be his 56th.
BEYOND THE ACTION
SATURDAY SUPER 5
With the College Basketball season fast approaching, get to know the Super 5. It’s back for yet another term as is other featured plays in the market such as the Teaser Special and the world-famous Potency Play.
TOTALLY RANDOM SPORTS PHOTO
Have a Happy and Safe Halloween weekend, please.
Darkseid Sports 
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