We go again.
COINCIDENTAL STADIUM of the WEEK
A new series depicting a stadium which corresponds to a play featured in The 7 Best and/or its auxiliary actions to open the show.
- Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC.
LAS VEGAS —Here it is. The 7 Best is back and I’m fired up to get down to business. Last week was a 4-3, 0-1 Top Choice ledger. The results in-total have bloomed in recent weeks but I detest the fact the feature play is lacking.
Right then, here are my T7 ATS/Total positions for this weekend in College Football and in the National Football League.
No excuses. I’m out for blood now.
The 7 Best Record: 24-25 (25 Points)
Top Choice Record: 2-5
Scoring: 1 point per win, half-point per push, 1.5 points per Top Choice win
— UCLA/INDIANA UNDER 53.5 POINTS
KEY METRICS
- UCLA: 2-5 O/U. Game total Unders have converted in 8 L12 (27% ROI) & Bruins TT-Un have completed in 5 L7 (32% ROI).
- IU: Defensive ranks, nationally: 4th in PPG/A (11.6), 2nd in SCK/PG (3.7) & 7th in YPG/A (248.7).
- My xAAPT: 51
MY TAKE
It’s a play going under the total, at 53.5 points herein, when the Indiana Hoosiers host the UCLA Bruins Saturday afternoon at Merchants Bank Field in Bloomington. UCLA has been demonstrably better in all aspects of the game since its recent coaching change. But I hate this travel spot for the Bruins playing the early game and let’s be real: the Indiana defense is awesome, as are the Hoosiers in-total. IU will win the game, probably easy but I think it stays under in a more prodding, less-explosive fashion. What can you do? Play to 52.
— OLE MISS/OKLAHOMA UNDER 52.5 POINTS
KEY METRICS
- MISS: 55th nationally in PPG/A (22.6) & 65th in YPG/A (362.3).
- OU: 0-7 O/U. Game Total Under conversion in 10 L13 (47% ROI). The Sooners’ defense ranks 1st nationally in YPG/A (213.0), 2nd in PPG/A (9.4), 2nd in YPP/A (3.7) & 5th in SCK/GM (4.0).
- My xAAPT: 50
MY TAKE
It’s a play going under the total, 52.5 points herein, when the Oklahoma Sooners host the Ole Miss Rebels Saturday afternoon at Memorial Stadium in Norman. Oklahoma has arguably the best defense in the country and I question exactly how much scoring Ole Miss will do Saturday. But here’s the thing: the Ole Miss defense has enough to combat the Oklahoma offense, which is outside the T65 nationally in Scoring. That’s a recipe for an Under for me and at anything under 51.5 I’m in.
— WISCONSIN/OREGON OVER 44.5 POINTS
KEY METRICS
- UW: Game Total Under conversion in 8 L12 (28% ROI) & TT- Un conversion in 4 L5 (46% ROI). The defense ranks 6th nationally in Def. Pen. (3.9) & is 47th in YPG/A (341.9).
- ORE: The Ducks defense ranks 5th nationally in YPP/A (4.1), 6th in YPG/A (245.6) & 7th in PPG/A (14.4)
- My xAAPT: 47
MY TAKE
It’s a play going over the total, 44.5 points herein, when the Oregon Ducks host the Wisconsin Badgers Saturday afternoon at Autzen Stadium in Eugene. You guys, this could be a desecration. Oregon could cover the Over themselves. The Badgers offense is really bad and ranks in the 130s in scoring and yards. The Wisconsin defense is nowhere near as good as it used to be and I don’t think there will be much resistance here. Now, the Badgers won’t score much, but if it can contribute 13-14 points, the Ducks can handle the rest. I’m thinking something along the lines of 34-13, Oregon. So it’s a try going over 44.5 here. No tricks, play to 46.
— COLORADO (+13.5) at Utah
KEY METRICS
- CU: ATS coverage in 8 L13 games (17% ROI). The offense ranks 30th nationally in Off. Pen. (5.3). The ST unit ranks 24th in YDS/KO-RET (25.1).
- UU: M/L conversion in just 1 L4 home games (-39% ROI). The Utes defense ranks 71st nationally in Def. Pen. (6.3) & 100th in 4Q/PA (7.7).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the visiting Colorado Buffaloes getting 13.5 points when it plays the Utah Utes Saturday evening at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City. A bit too many points here me thinks. Utah is being overvalued and over-respected in this spot coming off the loss to rival BYU. It’s like there is an expectation of a blowout, which I don’t feel comfortable co-signing for. CU blasted Utah (albeit in Boulder) last season. The Buffs have been better than advertised in an expected letdown season. Coach Prime has CU playing hard on the weekly. Utah will win, but CU can absolutely parachute inside this number. Play to +13, if you know what I mean.
— 49ers/TEXANS UNDER 42.5 POINTS
KEY METRICS
- SF: 49ers defense ranks 7/32 in PPG/A (19.7), 11th in YPP/A (5.4), 14th in YPG/A (317.4), 10th in Def. Pen. (6.3) & 5th in Def. Pen./YDS (43.6).
- HOU: Game Total Over conversion in just 7 L21 overall (-32% ROI) & TT-Ov completion in 8 L21 (-27% ROI). The Texans defense ranks 1st in the NFL in PPG/A (14.7), 4th in YPG/A (274.2) & 5th in YPP/A (4.9).
- My xAAPT: 38
MY TAKE
It’s a play going under the total, at 42.5 points herein, when the San Francisco 49ers visit the Houston Texans Sunday afternoon at NRG Stadium. This game features two very potent defenses and two questionable offenses, one of which is hampered by injuries. I have such respect for the defenses, I’m not totally convinced the 49ers situation matters all that much. It’s a given HOU doesn’t offer much offensively. I have this as a low scoring game. First one to 20 wins? I don’t know what’s else to say beyond that while I point to the metrics. I like this Under to 41.5.
— PACKERS/STEELERS OVER 45.5 POINTS
KEY METRICS
- GB:TT-Ov conversion in 7 L10 away games (30% ROI). The Packers offense ranks 7/32 in PPG (26.3) & 5th in QBR (106.1).
- PIT: Offense ranks 12/32 in PPG (25.0) & 9th in QBR (103.6).
- My xAAPT: 47
MY TAKE
It’s a play going over the total, at 45.5 points herein, when the Green Bay Packers oppose the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acriscure Stadium on NBC’s Sunday Night Football. I think this will be a classic QB joust Sunday night. I’ll let you supply the extra narratives. The Pittsburgh defense hasn’t been very good. The Packers defense has been good only in the big moments. In between, I think there will be enough scoring to satisfy this Over. No jive, I would play to 46.5.
TOP CHOICE
— ALABAMA/SOUTH CAROLINA UNDER 47.5 POINTS
KEY METRICS
- ALA: Game Total Under conversion in 9 L13 (32% ROI) and is 0/3 in its L3 tries converting the TT-Ov (-100% ROI). The Tide defense ranks 22nd nationally in Scoring Defense (17.7 PPG/A) & 25th in Total Defense (309.9 YPG/A).
- SCAR: TT-Un conversion in 4 L5 at home (52% ROI) & Game Total Under conversion in 8 L13 overall (17% ROI). The Gamecocks defense ranks 27th nationally in Scoring Defense (20.0 PPG/A).
- My xAAPT: 45
MY TAKE
It’s a play going under the total, at 47.5 points herein, when the Alabama Crimson Tide play the South Carolina Gamecocks Saturday afternoon at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia. Very simply, I just can’t fathom how much scoring South Carolina will do here. I’ve watched quite a bit of SCAR football lately and it is not a good offensive team, whatsoever, The OL is suspect, which is being nice. ALA is polished and has come a long way since the weird FSU loss to open its season. It will score enough to win. But the Tide defense should contribute enough to win handily. At worst, I have this a 27-19 game. Maybe something like 30-13 is more likely? So it’s a play on ALA/SCAR UNDER 47.5 for me as the Top Choice pursuant to The 7 Best v8.0. Considering I’m still good with ALA in the season-win total market, I have only one thing left to say: Roll Tide!
T7B First Cut Record: 5-2
— 49ers (+2.5) at Houston
I passed on San Francisco to focus on other positions. I prefer to use the 49ers in the Teaser Market for this week.
CFB/NFL TV MAPS
SURVIVOR UPDATE
I was in several low-profile survivor contests. I am not anymore. Week 5 was an unsuccessful Survivor market entry with the Arizona Cardinals disgracing themselves, the organization in-total, its former players and staff and its fans by losing to Tennessee and cowering-out of Survival markets in shocking, abysmal fashion. This concludes my business making market predictions for others in this portfolio.
I shared my “Would-be Survivor” selection before kickoff last Sunday and will do the same until a 2nd, final exclusion.
The WBS play last week was successful with Chicago.
AUXILIARIES
*The following Teasers were played at various points throughout the week when at my point of numeric satisfaction. Teasers are 7-6 this term.*
Three teasers this week.
*2TM 7PT CFB SGT*
ALABAMA -4.5
ALA/SCAR ⬇️54.5
Another dip into CFB for the Teaser of the Week honors. I’ll cut through 5 key numbers (6, 7, 8, 10, 11) to move ALA to -4.5 and I obviously endorse the Under here as, at 47.5, it is my Top Choice for this week.
*3TM 7PT TSR*
FALCONS -.5
EAGLES -.5
GB/PIT OVER 38.5
As for the NFL Teaser for this week, it’s Pretty Straightforward. I don’t necessarily agree with the archaic, outdated narrative of “one shouldn’t tease totals.” I don’t know mate. If I clear a certain number of key numbers — even in the total market — I’m going to do it.
I’ll back the Falcons to merely beat the Dolphins at home, I’ll do the same with the Eagles in a revenge game versus the Giants and I’ll clear 5 key numbers (40, 41, 43, 44, 45) numbers moving the above mentioned Under.
*2TM 6PT NFL SGT*
49ers +8.5
SF/HOU UNDER 48.5
On this same-game action, I’ll move the 49ers up to have a better landing zone and I’ll clear 5 key numbers on the total (43, 44, 45, 47, 48) with a 6-point move on the Under.
FUTURISTICS REVISITED
- NFL Season Win Totals
— ARIZONA CARDINALS OVER 8.5 WINS (-25)
📚: FanDuel
UPDATE: This franchise made a lifetime enemy in me some weeks ago. That’s all I’ll say.
— LAS VEGAS RAIDERS OVER 6.5 WINS (-40)
📚: FanDuel
*NFC Championship*
— GREEN BAY PACKERS (9.5, 7:1)
UPDATE: Bad loss in Cleveland some weeks ago. The tie in Dallas ago was really weird. Nothing is over. Nothing is settled. But the Bye came at a good time. The team needed to refocus and reprioritize and get back to playing team, complimentary football. And that should have started with the home game at venerable Lambeau Field in a game versus the Bengals it should’ve won comfortably. Instead , it was tough sledding albeit an eventual win. Last Sunday at Arizona was another test. This time it passed. Green Bay was great in the big moments. It will need to do so again this Sunday in Pittsburgh. No result is off the table here. Go Pack Go.
Follow me on X for legit, objective and non-cookie-cutter analysis on the Green Bay Packers.
REFERENCES
- X
- Various individual and entity social media accounts on X as cited in usage of this work
- Grok
- Google Gemini
- Pro Football Reference
- CFB Reference
- Team Rankings
- Covers
- NFL+
- NFL Pro
- Riddell Sports
- Schutt Sports
- 506 Sports
- Fox Sports
- CBS Sports
- CBS Sports App
- Real Sports App
- Circa Sports
- FanDuel Sports
- STN Sports
- Oddschecker US
- Getty Images
- Darkseid Sports Intellectual Properties
CREATOR’S NOTE: This week’s 7 Best used odds from Circa Sports on the day of publish (today) and via FanDuel. The whole premise behind this arduous challenge is to play with Friday numbers. In the opinion of this author, Circa Sports serves as the premier destination in the brick-and-mortar Sportsbook genre in American Gaming and is a certain travel destination for tourists who visit the great city of Las Vegas. FanDuel has a sensational overall betting menu and is at the top echelon of soccer betting in the American market. I have no current association with either entity.
This competition was built to mirror the CFFI contest. Recently, I caught the host the program use BS lines for the Miami – Florida game. And sadly it’s not the first or second time the network— known for plagiarism and cooking books for its talent — have done something like this before. Therefore, my focus is on Friday numbers, regardless of book. Unlike others in the EPL space, I will only share numbers and bets which are widely available to you. If they won’t be professional enough to stick to the 10 a.m./Friday jive, why should I?
DISCLAIMER: Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the NCAA and/or any of the programs, athletes, social media accounts, sports betting entities, universities, football programs or corporate entities digitally written about or depicted in corresponding images. The author of this writing is an ardent and serious College Football and Miami Hurricanes fan since the Jimmy Johnson regime.
DISCLAIMER: Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the National Football League, the Green Bay Packers, its players, social media presences, sports betting entities and/or corporate entities associated with the team(s) either in written form or depicted in corresponding images. There is no association with any other person, social media account, media entity, corporate entity, etc. The author of this writing is a third-generation Packers fan, a former credentialed-media member covering the franchise, an amateur historian focused on the franchise and is +EV career betting the franchise lifetime. He is a passionate and very serious Packers and National Football League fan. His next game at Lambeau Field will be his 56th.
BEYOND THE ACTION
SATURDAY SUPER 5
With the College Basketball season fast approaching, get to know the Super 5. It’s back for yet another term as is other featured plays in the market such as the Teaser Special and the world-famous Potency Play.
TOTALLY RANDOM SPORTS PHOTO
Darkseid Sports 
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