We go again.
COINCIDENTAL STADIUM of the WEEK
A new series depicting a stadium which corresponds to a play featured in The 7 Best and/or its auxiliary actions to open the show.
- Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
LAS VEGAS —Here it is. The 7 Best is here and I’m fired up to get down to business. Last week was a 5-2, 0-1 Top Choice week. Good for the ledger in-total but I demand the featured play gets back on track.
Right then, here are my T7 ATS/Total positions for this weekend in College Football and in the National Football League.
No excuses. I’m out for blood now. Last week was just the start, hopefully.
The 7 Best Record: 20-22 (21 Points).
Top Choice Record: 2-4
Scoring: 1 point per win, half-point per push, 1.5 points per Top Choice win
— Wyoming at AIR FORCE (-4.5)
KEY METRICS
- AFA: 7-3 ATS L10. 18th nationally in Scoring Offense (PPG, 38.3), 10th in Total Offense (YPG, 490.3) & 13th in Yards Per Play (YPP, 7.7).
- WYO: 108th nationally in Offensive Penalties (7.3 per) and 112th in Defensive Penalties (7.7 per). The Cowboys offense is 115th nationally in PPG (19.8), 94th in YPG (358.3) & 93rd in YPP (5.4).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the Air Force Falcons laying 4.5 points at home against the Wyoming Cowboys Saturday afternoon at Falcons Stadium in Colorado Springs. The is a double-redemption spot for Air Force. The brutal loss at Navy previously. The even more brutal and absurd loss last week at UNLV. Now coming home, I think the Falcons have the stuff to make good and get a win against a Wyoming team I can’t get there with. Even if the Air Force defense gives up many points and yardage…the AFA offense will score more. I wouldn’t play past -4.5 if you don’t have to.
— SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (+9.5) at Notre Dame
KEY METRICS
- USC: 3rd nationally in PPG (45.5), 2nd in YPG (552.3) & 1st in YPP (8.3). The USC OL is 10th nationally in Sacks Allowed (0.7 per). The Trojans defense is 9th in SCK/PG (3.3), 17th in Def. Pen. (4.5) & 26th in Pen. Yds/A (42.2).
- ND: 130th nationally in Def. Pen. (8.3). 133rd in 2Q/PA (12.5). The Irish offense is 61st in Off. Pen. (5.8).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the visiting Trojans of Southern California getting almost 10 points when it travels east to face one of its classic rivals in the Notre Dame Fighting Irish Saturday evening in South Bend. I know USC has injuries at RB…I just don’t care. If you as a reserve player can’t get-up and be all-in for *checks notes* Notre Dame then I question if you should be playing for USC. It takes what it takes. I also know the Trojans defense leaves something to be desired but USC was good to myself and readers last week against Michigan and I think this week the Trojans can parachute inside this number here. Southern California is the play and Trojans will be up for this game. Anything more than +8.5 and I was in with a grin.
— Saints at BEARS (-4.5)
KEY METRICS
- CHI: TT-Ov conversion in 12 L19 (19% ROI) & ATS coverage in 5 L9 home games (17% ROI). The Chicago defense ranks 2nd in the NFL in Def. Pen. (5.0) & Def. Pen./YA (35.8). The Bears offense ranks 10/32 in PPG (25.2).
- NO: M/L conversion in just 4 L20 (-52% ROI). TT-Ov conversion in just 7 L20 (-36% ROI.) The New Orleans offense ranks 28th in Off. Pen. (8.3) & 30th in Def. Pen. (8.7).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the home Chicago Bears laying four-and-a-half points when it plays the New Orleans Saints Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field. This is a play against New Orleans now having to go on the road to play the early game against a better team on natural grass after two consecutive home games. No thanks. Chicago is feeling themselves and playing decent football. Anything under -6 is a play for me and if the Bears had a better injury situation, it very likely would’ve been the Top Choice for this week.
— EAGLES (-2) at Vikings
KEY METRICS
- PHI: ATS coverage in 8 L10 road games (25% ROI), TT-Ov conversion in 8 L10 road games & 2H M/L conversion in 15 L21 overall (13% ROI). The Eagles defense ranks 8th in Def. Pen. (6.2) & the Special Teams unit is 4/32 in Yds/KR (22.0).
- MIN: The ofense ranks 25th in the NFL in PPG (305.0) & 32nd in SCK/PG (4.2).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the visiting Philadelphia Eagles laying two points when it plays the Minnesota Vikings Sunday afternoon at US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. The key opinion here is Philadelphia will rebound after a recent skid and I disagree with the public love-fest around Minnesota. I don’t think its HC is Vince Lombardi. I think plainly the Eagles are better than Vikings, certainly on its day. How about that? I’m not even sure Minnesota is decided on a QB for Sunday. I would lay to -3 maybe even -3.5 (I like the Eagles here) with Philadelphia as the play.
— Green Bay/Arizona OVER 45.5 POINTS
KEY METRICS
- GB: 4Q TT-Ov conversion in 11 L17 (24% ROI ) & TT-Ov conversion wholesale in 6 L9 road games (24% ROI). The Green Bay offense ranks 8th in PPG (26.2), 9th in YPG (359.6) & 9th in YPP (6.0). The Packers defense ranks 32nd in 4Q/PA (12.0).
- AZ: 6-4 O/U L10. The Cardinals defense ranks 23rd in SCK/PG (1.8) & 24th in YPG/A (348.0).
- My xAAPT: 47
MY TAKE
It’s a play going over the total, 45.5 points herein, when the Green Bay Packers head west to combat the Arizona Cardinals Sunday afternoon at State Farm Stadium in Glendale. My expectation here is after two sketchy weeks with the ball Green Bay will play a cleaner game offensive up-to-and-including QB Jordan Love having a big day. This should translate to points. Who knows what you’re going to get from the Packers’ defense lately so I have to believe Arizona will offer a modicum of scoring themselves. The Cardinals are coming off some bad Sundays too and need a performance. I don’t think it’s a big ask for Arizona to contribute “something” offensively. So I t’s a play on the over here to 46. Go Pack Go.
— Falcons at 49ers (-2)
KEY METRICS
- SF: The 49ers defense ranks 9th in Def. Pen. (6.3). The offense ranks 6th in YPG (373.7).
- ATL: M/L conversion in just 7 L19 (-31% ROI) and ATS coverage 2H in 4 L16 (-54%). Atlanta’s offense is 27/32 in PPG (20.0) & 23rd in 4Q/PF (4.6). The Falcons defense ranks 29/32 in Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game (RY/A, 114.0), 26th Def. Pen. (6.6) & 30 in Pen. Yds/A (55.8).
- Teams that played SNF or MNF and then had a road game the next week (superfluous to SNF or MNF) had a 38% ATS coverage rate the previous year. Moreover, NFL teams are 5-9 ATS L14 the week after playing on MNF.
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the home San Francisco 49ers laying two points when it hosts the Atlanta Falcons Sunday evening from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. Of course I’m concerned about the 49ers mass-injury situation but I’m undeterred here. This is play against the schedule for Atlanta. This is also a play against an expected letdown from going to Brock Purdy to Mac Jones. The injuries on defense are concerning too for the 49ers but ultimately I can’t get there with the Falcons and anything under -3 and I’m ok trying the 49ers.
TOP CHOICE
— Carolina/New York (A) OVER 41.5 POINTS
KEY METRICS
- CAR: 8-2 O/U L10. The Carolina defense is 32nd in SCK/GM (0.8). The Special Teams unit ranks 32nd in YDS/PR (20.9).
- NYJ: 7-3 O/U L10. The Jets defense ranks 28/32 in PPG/A (28.3) & 27th in Pen. Yds/GM (64.5).
- My xAAPT: 45
MY TAKE
It’s a play going over the total, 41.5 Points herein, when the New York Jets play the Carolina Panthers Sunday afternoon at Met Life Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. Not sure what I’m supposed to say really: I think this total is a bit low and I don’t think the defenses are good enough to justify said total. I also think there are free points out there citing poor Special Teams and penalty yards surrendered by both teams. I would play to 42.5. So it’s a play on CAR/NYJ OVER 41.5 for me as the Top Choice pursuant to The 7 Best v7.0.
T7B First Cut Record: 5-1
— OLE MISS (+7) at UGA
I passed on Ole Miss begrudgingly b/c +7.5 was gone and this is a *Friday Numbers* competition and to focus on other positions. Too many penalties for the Rebels, too.
CFB/NFL TV MAPS
SURVIVOR UPDATE
I was in several low-profile survivor contests. I am not anymore. Week 5 was an unsuccessful Survivor market entry with the Arizona Cardinals disgracing themselves, the organization in-total, its former players and staff and its fans by losing to Tennessee and cowering-out of Survival markets in shocking, abysmal fashion. This concludes my business making market predictions for others in this portfolio.
I shared my “Would-be Survivor” selection before kickoff last Sunday and will do the same until a 2nd, final exclusion.
The WBS play last week was successful with Green Bay.
AUXILIARIES
*The following Teaser was played at various points throughout the week when at my point of numeric satisfaction. Teasers are 7-4 this term.*
Two teasers this week. Same presentation as last week where TSR’s went 2-0.
*2TM 7PT CFB SGT*
SOUTH CAROLINA +11.5
OU/SCAR ⬇️50.5
Another dip into CFB for the Teaser of the Week honors. I like this spot for the Gamecocks. I considers SCAR for T7B usage. Oklahoma off the rivalry loss having to travel to a tough in-conference opponent maybe finding its form? Pasadena. Go Cocks! Under is the situation here… two very good defenses.
*3TM 7PT TSR*
CAR/NYJ ⬆️34.5
GB/AZ ⬆️37.5
BRONCOS pk
As for the NFL Teaser for this week, it’s Pretty Straightforward. I don’t necessarily agree with the archaic narrative of “one shouldn’t tease totals.” I don’t know mate. If I clear a certain number of key numbers — even in the total market — I’m going to do it.
I’ll back the Broncos to merely beat the Giants at home and I’ll clear 5 key numbers each on the above mentioned Totals.
FUTURISTICS REVISITED
- NFL Season Win Totals
— ARIZONA CARDINALS OVER 8.5 WINS (-25)
📚: FanDuel
UPDATE: This franchise made a lifetime enemy in me two weeks ago. That’s all I’ll say.
— LAS VEGAS RAIDERS OVER 6.5 WINS (-40)
📚: FanDuel
*NFC Championship*
— GREEN BAY PACKERS (9.5, 7:1)
UPDATE: Bad loss in Cleveland three weeks ago. The tie in Dallas two weeks ago was really weird. Nothing is over. Nothing is settled. But the Bye came at a good time. This team needs to refocus and reprioritize and get back to playing team, complimentary football. And that should have started last week with a home game at venerable Lambeau Field in a game versus the Bengals it should win comfortably. Instead , it was tough sledding albeit an eventual win. This Sunday at Arizona is another test. It’s a game Green Bay should win. Go Pack Go.
Follow me on X for legit, objective and non-cookie-cutter analysis on the Green Bay Packers.
REFERENCES
- X
- Various individual and entity social media accounts on X as cited in usage of this work
- Grok
- Google Gemini
- Pro Football Reference
- CFB Reference
- Team Rankings
- Covers
- NFL+
- NFL Pro
- Riddell Sports
- Schutt Sports
- 506 Sports
- Fox Sports
- CBS Sports
- CBS Sports App
- Real Sports App
- Circa Sports
- FanDuel Sports
- STN Sports
- Oddschecker US
- Getty Images
- Darkseid Sports Intellectual Properties
CREATOR’S NOTE: This week’s 7 Best used odds from Circa Sports on the day of publish (today) and via FanDuel. The whole premise behind this arduous challenge is to play with Friday numbers. In the opinion of this author, Circa Sports serves as the premier destination in the brick-and-mortar Sportsbook genre in American Gaming and is a certain travel destination for tourists who visit the great city of Las Vegas. FanDuel has a sensational overall betting menu and is at the top echelon of soccer betting in the American market. I have no current association with either entity.
This competition was built to mirror the CFFI contest. Recently, I caught the host the program use BS lines for the Miami – Florida game. And sadly it’s not the first or second time the network— known for plagiarism and cooking books for its talent — have done something like this before. Therefore, my focus is on Friday numbers, regardless of book. Unlike others in the EPL space, I will only share numbers and bets which are widely available to you. If they won’t be professional enough to stick to the 10 a.m./Friday jive, why should I?
DISCLAIMER: Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the NCAA and/or any of the programs, athletes, social media accounts, sports betting entities, universities, football programs or corporate entities digitally written about or depicted in corresponding images. The author of this writing is an ardent and serious College Football and Miami Hurricanes fan since the Jimmy Johnson regime.
DISCLAIMER: Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the National Football League, the Green Bay Packers, its players, social media presences, sports betting entities and/or corporate entities associated with the team(s) either in written form or depicted in corresponding images. There is no association with any other person, social media account, media entity, corporate entity, etc. The author of this writing is a third-generation Packers fan, a former credentialed-media member covering the franchise, an amateur historian focused on the franchise and is +EV career betting the franchise lifetime. He is a passionate and very serious Packers and National Football League fan. His next game at Lambeau Field will be his 56th.
BEYOND THE ACTION
SATURDAY SUPER 5
With the College Basketball season fast approaching, get to know the Super 5. It’s back for yet another term as is other featured plays in the market such as the Teaser Special and the world-famous Potency Play.
TOTALLY RANDOM SPORTS PHOTO
Darkseid Sports 
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