We go again.
COINCIDENTAL STADIUM of the WEEK
A new series depicting a stadium which corresponds to a play featured in The 7 Best and/or its auxiliary actions to open the show.
- Kyle Field, College Station, TX
LAS VEGAS —Here it is. The 7 Best is back and I’m alive and ready to thrive in the hopeful continuation of the positive results from last week. v3.0 was good for a 5-2, 1-0 Top Choice ledger. Clearly the Philadelphia Job was crucial to these results. Kansas City gave readers yet another successful Survivor Entry.
Now then, here are my T7 ATS/Total positions for this weekend in College Football and in the National Football League.
I recently started to integrate totals. I’m starting now to going on “feel” and rely on the new, seasonal data and how I think it correlates and integrates into finding an edge. Past data, unless cited in a historical data ethos, starts to take a backseat now.
The 7 Best Record: 9-12-0 (9.5).
Top Choice Record: 1-2
Scoring: 1 point per win, half-point per push, 1.5 points per Top Choice win
— SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (-6.5) at Illinois.
KEY METRICS
- USC: Ranks 1st nationally in YPP (9.2), 3rd in YPG (583.8), 3rd in YPC (7.1) and 3rd in QBR (203.0). The Trojans defense ranks T52 nationally in YPG & YPP Against and ranks 4th in SCK/PG (4.0)
- ILL: Has converted its TT (team-total) Over in 1 L4 games (-54% ROI).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the visiting Trojans of Southern California laying up-to-and-including a touchdown when it visits the Illinois Fighting Illini Saturday afternoon at Memorial Stadium in Champaign. I thought Illinois was undressed, discarded and exposed in its beatdown loss at the hands of Indiana last week. Meanwhile, flying under the radar, USC is really good. The UNLV-transfer QB has been sensational. The program arguably has never looked better under HC Lincoln Riley. Even if USC hates the travel and the early kick, I can’t get there with the Illini. I’ll play USC to -7.5.
— INDIANA/IOWA UNDER 48.5 Points
KEY METRICS
- IU: 3rd nationally in YPG/A (205.8), 4th in SCK/PG (3.8), 8th in PY/A (118.8 per game) and 11th in Def. Pen. (4.0 per game)
- IOWA: 10th nationally in Def. Pen. (3.8 per game), 13th in YPG/A (233.5) and 20th in YPP/A (4.2).
- My xAPPT: 47
MY TAKE
It’s a play going under the total when the Iowa Hawkeyes host the Indiana Hoosiers Saturday afternoon at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City. It’s pretty straightforward really. I think this will be a tough, arduous game commensurate to classic Big 10 conference play. I know the scoring has been up with both teams. I don’t care and believe scoring metrics will return to established average over the a long-term sample. I would feel comfy-cozy playing this total to 47.5.
— UCLA at NORTHWESTERN (-6.5)
KEY METRICS
- NW: 2nd nationally in Def. Pen.(2.7 per game) and 21st nationally in PY/A (153.0).
- UCLA: 3-7 ATS L10. Bruins have failed to hit its TT Ov in L3. It ranks 113th nationally in YPG (324.7), 123rd nationally in YPG/A (431.0) and 135th in SCK/PG (0.7).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the host Northwestern Wildcats laying 6.5 points when the UCLA Bruins come to town Saturday afternoon at Martin Stadium right on the lakefront in Evanston, IL. I won’t sugarcoat this: UCLA is awful and a fade until proven otherwise, even with the coaching change. The Wildcats aren’t special by any means but can handle this assignment. I would play this to -7.
— AUBURN/A&M OVER 52.5 Points
KEY METRICS
- AUB: 59th nationally in Scoring Offense (32.0 PPG)
- A&M: 20th nationally in Scoring Offense (42.3 PPG) & Total Offense (480.3 YPG).
- My xAAPT: 55
MY TAKE
It’s a play going over the total when the Texas A&M Aggies play host to the Auburn Tigers Saturday evening at Kyle Field in College Station. Just another day in the SEC this. Look, I get Auburn games haven’t been very high scoring but I think it will change here. I don’t know what the Tigers TT-Ov is but maybe that’s worth an auxiliary looks. Go watch an Aggies game. These games are going way over. It’s at home for A&M, so the pace should fit what they’re trying to do. I surely wouldn’t try the under here. So we’ll go over to say 53.5 points.
— Bears at RAIDERS (PK)
KEY METRICS
- LVR: Rank 7th in the NFL in PY/G (248.0) & 18th in Total Offense (320.3 YPG, 5.4 YPP)
- CHI: rank 28th in the NFL in 4Q scoring and 24th in Off. Pen (8.7 per game). Arlington Heights — sorry Chicago’s — defense ranks 32nd in YPP/A (6.9).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the local, Las Vegas Raiders as a pick’em when it hosts the Arlington Heights Bears — gosh I’m sorry again I meant the Chicago Bears — Sunday afternoon at Allegiant Stadium. I get what you’re thinking: not much about this screams Raiders and I agree. But I’m not sold on the Bears at all. I can’t get there. I’m at home, have the better pure passing quarterback (hopefully Geno Smith is on this week) and the more accomplished, respected HC. I’ll try the Raiders in a due bounce-back spot up to -1.
— Jaguars at 49ers (-3)
KEY METRICS
- SF: Defense ranks 3rd in the NFL in Scoring Defense (16.3 PPG/A), YPP/A (4.5) and 4th in YPG/A (265.7). It ranks 6th in Def. Pen. (5.3 per game). The 49ers offense ranks 8th in the league in YPG (361.0).
- JAX: M/L conversion in just 6 L20 games (-31% ROI). It has only covered the 4Q spread in in 7 L18 (-28% ROI). The Jaguars offense ranks 30th in QBR (69.3)and 31st in CMP% (55.8%).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the home San Francisco 49ers laying a field goal Sunday afternoon when it hosts the Jacksonville Jaguars at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. I’m expecting QB Brock Purdy back and in-total I’m expecting a more comprehensive game in total from the 49ers. Yes, they’re 3-0 but they’ve played nowhere near its best football yet. Also, maybe Jacksonville is being overvalued here. I’m not sure what it has done to warrant taking money in this spot. I’d play to -3.5 but apparently that’s a non-issue as the line fell and hit -3.
TOP CHOICE
— Oregon at PENN STATE (-3.5)
KEY METRICS
- PSU: The offense ranks 2nd nationally in 4Q scoring (14.0). The defense ranks 3rd in YPP/A (3.6) and 9th in YPG/A (224.0).
- ORE: Failed to hit TT-Ov in L2 (-100% ROI). Defense ranks just 50th in Def. Pen. (5.2 per game) and 92nd nationally in SCK/PG (1.8). Oregon ranks 103rd Yds/K-RET (20.1).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the Penn State Nittany Lions laying three-and-a-half points when it hosts the Oregon Ducks Saturday evening at Beaver Stadium in Happy Valley, PA. Tough game for sure. A premium matchup, obviously. Yes, I’m concerned about the big game transgressions by HC James Franklin but I believe in this spot PSU will come through. It’s at home so considering the weak scheduling prior to this game, I’m led to believe PSU has had a *long time* to prepare for this game. To drop this game to Oregon would be a bad look as to how the program scheduled for 2025. I’d play to -4. Penn State is your Top Choice pursuant to The 7 Best v4.0.
IN MEMORIAM
— ALABAMA (+3) at Georgia
I passed on Alabama to focus on other positions and b/c I’m already scoops deep into Alabama in the regular season win total market. Roll Tide.
CFB/NFL TV MAPS
SURVIVOR RECC
I am in several low-profile survivor contests. I will release a single, consensus survivor contest selection until all my entires are toast. Last week was a successful survivor entry week with the Kansas City Chiefs surviving in clean, professional order.
Darkseid Sports is back for its Survivor Week Four Position now…
CREATOR’S NOTE: Last week I disclosed the fact I am a contestant in the Covers $10K Pro Football Survivor Contest. Originally, I played my contest ethos off here as being in low-profile contests, which is true. But the Covers contest is not low-profile. It’s a big contest which deserves full rate and coverage.
AUXILIARIES
*The following NFL teasers were played at various points throughout the week when at my point of numeric satisfaction. Teasers are 3-2 this term.*
TWO TSR MKT play this week…
*2TM 6PT TSR*
STEELERS +8.5
JETS +8.5
*3TM 7PT TSR*
PACKERS pk
TEXANS pk
BRONCOS -.5
NOTE: Play the M/L Parlay here if it pays better at your respective shop.
FUTURISTICS REVISITED
- NFL Season Win Totals
— ARIZONA CARDINALS OVER 8.5 WINS (-25)
📚: FanDuel
— LAS VEGAS RAIDERS OVER 6.5 WINS (-40)
📚: FanDuel
*NFC Championship*
— GREEN BAY PACKERS (9.5, 7:1)
UPDATE: Bad loss in Cleveland last week but it’s a long season. Everybody relax.
REFERENCES
- X
- Various individual and entity social media accounts on X as cited in usage of this work
- Grok
- Google Gemini
- Pro Football Reference
- CFB Reference
- Team Rankings
- Covers
- NFL+
- NFL Pro
- Riddell Sports
- Schutt Sports
- 506 Sports
- Circa Sports
- FanDuel Sports
- STN Sports
- Oddschecker US
- Getty Images
- Darkseid Sports Intellectual Properties
CREATOR’S NOTE: This week’s 7 Best used odds from Circa Sports at 10 a.m. PST on the day of publish (today) and via FanDuel. The whole premise behind this arduous challenge is to play with Friday numbers. In the opinion of this author, Circa Sports serves as the premier destination in the brick-and-mortar Sportsbook genre in American Gaming and is a certain travel destination for tourists who visit the great city of Las Vegas. FanDuel has a sensational overall betting menu and is at the top echelon of soccer betting in the American market. I have no current association with either entity.
This competition was built to mirror the CFFI contest. Last week, I caught the host the program use BS lines for the Miami – Florida game. And sadly it’s not the first or second time the network— known for plagiarism and cooking books for its talent — have done something like this before. Therefore, my focus is on Friday numbers, regardless of book. Unlike others in the EPL space, I will only share numbers and bets which are widely available to you. If they won’t be man enough to stick to the 10 a.m./Friday jive, why should I?
DISCLAIMER: Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the NCAA and/or any of the programs, athletes, social media accounts, sports betting entities, universities, football programs or corporate entities digitally written about or depicted in corresponding images. The author of this writing is an ardent and serious College Football and Miami Hurricanes fan since the Jimmy Johnson regime.
DISCLAIMER: Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the National Football League, the Green Bay Packers, its players, social media presences, sports betting entities and/or corporate entities associated with the team(s) either in written form or depicted in corresponding images. There is no association with any other person, social media account, media entity, corporate entity, etc. The author of this writing is a third-generation Packers fan, a former credentialed-media member covering the franchise, an amateur historian focused on the franchise and is +EV career betting the franchise lifetime. He is a passionate and very serious Packers and National Football League fan. His next game at Lambeau Field will be his 56th.
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