We go again.
COINCIDENTAL STADIUM of the WEEK
A new series depicting a stadium which corresponds to a play featured in The 7 Best and/or its auxiliary actions to open the show.
- Liberty Bowl, Memphis, TN
LAS VEGAS —Here it is. The 7 Best is back and there is only one way to go from here. UP. What a disappointment the last two weeks have been. Last week was just plain bad. Unlike v1.0, where there were small-margin losses, v2.0 was a mangled mess. A 4-10, 0-2 ledger is wholly unacceptable, embarrassing and way beneath me. I can do better.
Now then, here are my T7 ATS/Total positions for this weekend in College Football and in the National Football League.
I’m just now starting to integrate totals. I’m going on “feel” and on past data and how I think it correlates and integrates into the early season’s metrics.
The 7 Best Record: 4-10-0 (4).
Top Choice Record: 0-2
Scoring: 1 point per win, half-point per push, 1.5 points per Top Choice win
*Presented in jumbled order to try and switch-it-up and get back on track*
— Eagles/Rams UNDER 44.5 Points
KEY METRICS
- Both of these teams haven’t allowed more than 20.0 PPG through the first two games.
- Both defense have had very strong starts in regards to Total Yardage allowed metrics. The LAR defense is T4 in YPP/A (4.6) & Y/CMP-A (7.7)
MY TAKE
It’s a play going under the total when the Philadelphia Eagles host the Los Angeles Rams Sunday afternoon at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. I’m of the opinion the total is a little high here. I think this is a market overreaction based on the premium nature of the matchup. I have confidence to 44 with my xAAPT being 43. I’m thinking a 23-17 game? With some value on a generous total, I’ll try the under here.
— Arkansas at MEMPHIS (+7)
KEY METRICS
- MEM: Ranks 20th nationally Y/A (244.3), 23rd YPP/A (4.1) & 11th in Sacks/PG (3.3). Memphis ranks 12th in CMP%.
- MEM: Converted M/L wagers in 11 L13 (7% ROI) and had ATS coverage in 6 L13 (3% ROI). 3-0 ATS season to-date.
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the home Memphis Tigers getting 7 points when it plays host to the Arkansas Razorbacks Saturday afternoon at the old Liberty Bowl in Nashville, TN. I have +7.5 via locally as well. I hate this spot for Arkansas. On the road at Ole Miss last week. Home to Notre Dame next week. So it’s the 2nd of B2B road games with a look ahead next week? Hard pass. Memphis is quality. Go look at its schedule. Should it pull the upset here and defeat USF & Navy we are very likely to be discussing a CFB Playoff entrant. It’s Memphis for me at anything +7 or better.
— Florida at MIAMI (-8)
KEY METRICS
- UM: Ranks 13th nationally in RY/A (75.0 per game) & 15th in YPC/A (2.6). The Canes offense ranks 4th nationally in CMP% and is T26 in Y/F, YPP & PY/F.
- UM: M/L actions converted in 6 L7 home games (6% ROI)
- UF: M/L conversion in just two of L6 away games (-14% ROI)
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the Miami Hurricanes when it hosts in-state rival Florida Saturday evening at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL. Full disclosure, at first glance I wanted play the total. Through R&D I was led elsewhere, to the Canes. I think UM is more polished for this big game situation. The Hurricanes have looked great thus far. I’m not led to believe something changes Saturday. I can’t get there with Florida. The USF loss outright was bad (I had USF). The writing is on the wall, isn’t it? In fact, if UM desecrates UF, I wonder if that will be curtains for its HC? Should be all Miami come Saturday night. I’m comfortable laying 10.
— Stanford at VIRGINIA (-16)
KEY METRICS
- UVA:56th nationally Y/A (311.0 per game), 58th PY/A (189.0 per game) & 8th in Def. Pen./A (3.3). The Hoos offense ranks 11th nationally in Y/F (556.0), 16th in YPC (6.3) and 3rd in Y/KR-PG (45.5).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the home Virginia Cavaliers laying two-to-three possessions worth of points when it hosts the Stanford Cardinal Saturday afternoon at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, VA. I’m not going to sugarcoat this: Stanford is really bad and program GM Andrew Luck has a massive job on his hands for all the reasons that matter in College Football in the year 2025. I loathe this road spot for The Cardinal. I’m comfortable playing to -17. Should be all Virginia, all the time.
— Rams at EAGLES (-3.5)
KEY METRICS
- PHI: QB Jalen Hurts is completing 75.6% of his passes.
- LAR: Ranks 28th in the NFL in Defensive Penalties Against.
- Dating back to 2003, Pacific Time Zone teams have compiled a 62-67 ATS record (48.1% coverage rate, -8.08 units, -6.3% ROI) in 1 p.m. games when traveling to play in the Eastern Time Zone.
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the home Philadelphia Eagles laying three-and-a-half points to the Los Angeles Rams Sunday afternoon in the early slate of games from The Linc in Philadelphia. I have respect for Los Angeles but I’m just not yet ready to challenge the defending Super Bowl Champions here. Surely not in a spot where LAR is in B2B road-situations in the Eastern Time Zone. The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFL until proven otherwise. That proof will not come Sunday. Play to -4 and say no more. Apparently it’s a non-issue as the line is going the other way as of this writing. I can’t get there.
— Lions at RAVENS (-4.5)
KEY METRICS
- BAL: Ranks 1st in the NFL in YPP (6.9), PPG (40.5) and QBR (132.9).
- BAL: M/L conversion in 9 L10 home games (16% ROI) and have hit its TT (team-total) OVR in 18 L22 games (50% ROI).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the four-and-a-half point home- favorite Baltimore Ravens when it hosts the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. I don’t like this situation for Detroit whatsoever and I think this could be a statement game to the extent of the good ole’ days of yesteryear — with the great O/D Coordinators — are a whisper of a dream. I’ll side with the more preferable HC, QB & DEF, at home here. Anything under -6 and I’m in.
TOP CHOICE
— Broncos at Chargers (-2.5)
KEY METRICS
- LAC: 6-1ATS versus AFC West opposition under Jim Harbaugh.
- LAC: ATS coverage in 14 L22 games (26% ROI).
- DEN: have converted 4Q M/L in 2 L10 away games (-27% ROI).
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the host Los Angeles Chargers laying two-and-a-half points to the Denver Broncos as the Top Choice pursuant to The 7 Best v3.0 from So-Fi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. I think DEN is being overvalued in total. I thought they blew the game at Indianapolis last week…nevermind the penalty call on the FG. The Chargers are coming off two solid showings against AFC West competition and I don’t buy into an expected letdown spot here. Giving less than a FG, I’m in on the Chargers as a short home- favorite on Sunday afternoon as the Top Choice for this week.
— Illinois at INDIANA (-6.5)
I passed on IU because the number was serviced to an unmanageable number.
CFB/NFL TV MAPS
SURVIVOR RECC
I am in several low-profile survivor contests. I will release a single, consensus survivor contest selection until all my entires are toast. Last week was a successful survivor entry week with the Dallas Cowboys winning a game it just as easily could’ve lost. Only the bold and strong survive!
Darkseid Sports is back for its Survivor Week Three Position now…
CREATOR’S NOTE: I think now is a good time to disclose the fact I am a contestant in the Covers $10K Pro Football Survivor Contest. Originally, I played my contest ethos off here as being in low-profile contests, which is true. But the Covers contest is not low-profile. It’s a big contest which deserves full rate and coverage.
AUXILIARIES
*The following NFL teasers were played at various points throughout the week when at my point of numeric satisfaction. Teasers are 3-1 this term.*
Just one TSR MKT play this week…
*3TM 7PT TSR*
LAR/PHI ⬇️51.5
BEARS +8.5
SEAHAWKS -.5
FUTURISTICS REVISITED
- NFL Season Win Totals
— ARIZONA CARDINALS OVER 8.5 WINS (-25)
📚: FanDuel
— LAS VEGAS RAIDERS OVER 6.5 WINS (-40)
📚: FanDuel
*NFC Championship*
— GREEN BAY PACKERS (9.5, 7:1)
UPDATE: How good does Green Bay look?!? Wow. I thought about getting involved with the Packers in the Teaser Market but ultimately passed. I am having a lot of fun just being a fan of this team right now.
REFERENCES
- X
- Various individual and entity social media accounts on X as cited in usage of this work
- Grok
- Google Gemini
- Pro Football Reference
- CFB Reference
- Team Rankings
- Covers
- NFL+
- NFL Pro
- Riddell Sports
- Schutt Sports
- 506 Sports
- Circa Sports
- FanDuel Sports
- STN Sports
- Oddschecker US
- Getty Images
- Darkseid Sports Intellectual Properties
CREATOR’S NOTE: This week’s 7 Best used odds from Circa Sports at 10 a.m. PST on the day of publish (today) and via FanDuel in future markets. In the opinion of this author, Circa Sports serves as the premier destination in the brick-and-mortar Sportsbook genre in American Gaming and is a certain travel destination for tourists who visit the great city of Las Vegas. FanDuel has a sensational overall betting menu and is at the top echelon of soccer betting in the American market. I have no current association with either entity.
DISCLAIMER: Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the NCAA and/or any of the programs, athletes, social media accounts, sports betting entities, universities, football programs or corporate entities digitally written about or depicted in corresponding images. The author of this writing is an ardent and serious College Football and Miami Hurricanes fan since the Jimmy Johnson regime.
DISCLAIMER: Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the National Football League, the Green Bay Packers, its players, social media presences, sports betting entities and/or corporate entities associated with the team(s) either in written form or depicted in corresponding images. There is no association with any other person, social media account, media entity, corporate entity, etc. The author of this writing is a third-generation Packers fan, a former credentialed-media member covering the franchise, an amateur historian focused on the franchise and is +EV career betting the franchise lifetime. He is a passionate and very serious Packers and National Football League fan. His next game at Lambeau Field will be his 56th.
BEYOND THE ACTION
TOTALLY RANDOM SPORTS PHOTO
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