As always, Good Luck and Play Responsibly
COINCIDENTAL STADIUM of the WEEK
A new series depicting a stadium which corresponds to a play featured in The 7 Best and/or its auxiliary actions to open the show.
*Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI*
LAS VEGAS —Here it is. Football is back. The 7 Best is back. CFB. NFL. All the trimmings. What more needs to be said? I’ll say this: self-exclusion from preseason storylines and faux hype really has me focused and in a good place heading into the regular season. That time was better spent elsewhere.
Now then, here are my 7 Best ATS positions for this weekend in College Football and in the National Football League.
Good Luck🤜🤛Play Responsibly
The 7 Best Record: 0-0-0 (0). Top Choice Record: 0-0
Scoring: 1 point per win, half-point per push, 1.5 points per Top Choice win
— Illinois at DUKE (+2.5)
KEY METRICS
- Illinois has had not a road victory over a power-conference, non-league opponent circa September of 2007.
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the Duke Blue Devils as a two and a half point home dog when it hosts Illinois Saturday afternoon at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, NC. I’m getting points at home in the early window against a respected opponent without an out-of-conference road-win pedigree. I feel like Duke will win outright or get smashed…no in between. I got in at +3 earlier in the week. I’ll try the Blue Devils here again even if at a lesser number.
— Iowa at IOWA STATE (-3.5)
KEY METRICS
- ISU: 2-0 ATS. 14th nationally Takeaways Per Game & 34th nationally TO Margin. 1st nationally 4D Conversion % (100%). QB Rocco Becht is in-progress on a school-record 20-game TD streak.
MY TAKE
It’s play on the home Iowa State Cyclones laying three and a half points Saturday afternoon at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, IA. I have the better quarterback, the better offensive system and I just can’t fathom how one could go to window with Iowa here. I am so tired of its act with the football. It’s old now. I am a little concerned the road team has won its L5 in the series and that ISU has to be due for a stinker at some point considering this is its 3rd game in a row including the Ireland game. I can’t believe the CFB schedulers made ISU play last week after being in Dublin the week before. But Cyclones QB Rocco Becht has been sensational thus far and I’ll try the better team at home here at a manageable numeral inside four points in a classic rivalry game.
— Baylor at SMU (-2.5)
KEY METRICS
- SMU: SMU M/L wagers have cashed in 9 of its last 11 games (9 L11) for a +7.75 unit ledger and a 20% ROI.
MY TAKE
Gerald J. Ford Field in Dallas, TX will be up-for-grabs Saturday when SMU hosts Baylor. It’s a play on the home Mustangs for me. I can’t get there with Baylor. I’m not as big on HC Dave Aranda as others. The Bears have more injuries in volume early on. This is supposed to be a big year in Dallas. If so, SMU should handle this assignment. I’m in on anything under a field goal, which feels like value.
— OLE MISS at KENTUCKY (+9)
KEY METRICS
- UK: Kentucky went to Oxford last season as 15.5 point underdogs and won outright 20-17.
- UK: 9-1 L10 ATS in September games vs. AP-ranked teams.
MY TAKE
When the Kentucky Wildcats play host to the Ole Miss Rebels Saturday at Kroger Field in Lexington, KY you best believe I’ll be backing the home underdogs getting better than a full possession. I got a taste at +10, pre-line move. I’m back for a second helping now. It’s too many points. The Wildcats won this game last year. We may not win but we can parachute in. It’s Kentucky plus the points for me. I’d advise to +8. Full discourse: I considered UK for Top Choice honors.
— USF (+18) at Florida
KEY METRICS
- USF: Has covered ATS in 5 of its L7 away games for a 36% ROI.
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the South Florida Bulls for me when it travels north to Gainesville to oppose the Florida Gators Saturday at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. I’ll be the first to admit I could be a victim of recency bias here in the aftermath of USF’s brilliant performance against Boise State but I don’t think that’s the case here and I am getting a robust buffet of points. The USF defense is legitimate it seems. I’d play it to +17, but evidently that’s not an issue as the line is going the other way as of this writing (AOTW).
— LIONS (+2) at Packers
KEY METRICS
- DET: 35-9 in L44 regular season games. Lions have won each of its L3 visits to Lambeau Field. Detroit is 6-4 ATS L10 H2H. Lions M/L has cashed in L9 away games (49% ROI). Detroit has covered ATS in 8 of L9 road games (71% ROI).
MY TAKE
It’s a play (begrudgingly) on the visiting Detroit Lions when it visits venerable Lambeau Field Sunday afternoon to oppose the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay are notorious slow starters under HC Matt LaFleur. Jordan Love didn’t have a normal routine heading into the season with the thumb. Micah Parsons was just acquired. The Packers are a work in-progress with its best yet to come. And make no mistake, its best might be good enough for great things. Detroit is more polished entering the new season and HC Dan Campbell always treats this game as meaningful. It’s the Lions ATS and surely in the TSR market in auxiliary come Sunday. Grab a taste of the ML too at plus (Wisconsin) cheddar.
TOP CHOICE
— Vikings at BEARS (+1.5)
KEY METRICS
- CHI: ATS coverage in 8 L11 home games (48% ROI). Chicago has covered the 4Q spread in 12 L17 (28% ROI).
- MIN: Covered 4Q spread in 1 L9 away games (-79% ROI).
- Divisional home underdogs are 29-8 on Monday Night Football circa 2009. Home underdogs are 18-4 ATS circa 2012.
MY TAKE
It’s a play on the home Chicago Bears getting better than a point when it hosts the Minnesota Vikings Monday night at Soldier Field in Chicago. Enough of the BS jive: Minnesota has an unproven commodity at QB and there is no way of knowing just how good he is. I’ve listened to hype for two years now. It’s noise until proven otherwise. I’ll back the home dog on a Monday night as CHI is an ascending program and at least I know what I’m getting from Bears QB Caleb Williams. ATS, TSR, ML…it’s the Bears for me Monday night as the Top Choice pursuant to The 7 Best v1.0.
— UNLV +2.5. I couldn’t get there. It didn’t make the official card. Too much recency bias between both teams. I am going to keep score of the First Cut record all term.
CFB/NFL TV MAPS
SURVIVOR RECC
I am in several low-profile survivor leagues. I will release a single, consensus survivor contest selection until all my entires are toast. I’m going BOLD for v1.0 (I haven’t seen anybody tout LAR in the Survivor market).
AUXILIARIES
*The following teasers were played at various points throughout the week when at my point of numeric satisfaction*
*2TM 6PT TSR*
-Thurs. to Sun. NFL-
“The East-West Connection”
EAGLES -2
BRONCOS -2
-Sun. NFL-
*2TM 6PT TSR*
LIONS +8.5
BEARS +7.5
FUTURISTICS
- NFL Season Win Totals
— ARIZONA CARDINALS OVER 8.5 WINS (-25)
📚: FanDuel
— LAS VEGAS RAIDERS OVER 6.5 WINS (-40)
📚: FanDuel
*NFC Championship*
— GREEN BAY PACKERS (9.5, 7:1)
REFERENCES
- X
- Various individual and entity social media accounts on X as cited in usage of this work
- Google Gemini
- Pro Football Reference
- CFB Reference
- Team Rankings
- Covers
- NFL Pro
- Riddell Sports
- Schutt Sports
- 506 Sports
- Circa Sports
- FanDuel Sports
- STN Sports
- Oddschecker US
- Getty Images
- Darkseid Sports Intellectual Properties
CREATOR’S NOTE: This week’s 7 Best used odds from Circa Sports at 10 a.m. PST on the day of publish (today) and via FanDuel in future markets. In the opinion of this author, Circa Sports serves as the premier destination in the brick-and-mortar Sportsbook genre in American Gaming and is a certain travel destination for tourists who visit the great city of Las Vegas. FanDuel has a sensational overall betting menu and is at the top echelon of soccer betting in the American market.
DISCLAIMER: Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the NCAA and/or any of the programs, athletes, social media accounts, universities, football programs or corporate entities digitally written about or depicted in corresponding images. The author of this writing is an ardent and serious College Football and Miami Hurricanes fan since the Jimmy Johnson regime.
DISCLAIMER: Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the National Football League, the Green Bay Packers, its players, social media presences and/or corporate entities associated with the team(s) either in written form or depicted in corresponding images. There is no association with any other person, social media account, media entity, corporate entity, etc. The author of this writing is a third-generation Packers fan, a former credentialed-media member covering the franchise, an amateur historian focused on the franchise and is +EV career betting the franchise lifetime. He is a passionate and very serious Packers and National Football League fan. His next game at Lambeau Field will be his 56th.
BEYOND THE PLAYS
TOTALLY RANDOM SPORTS PHOTO
“I have no off switch. I only know go. I’m a competitor. Bro, I’ll bring a Connect 4 board in here and whoop everybody and dare them to do something.”
“How you do anything is how you do everything.” – Green Bay Packers’ EDGE Micah Parsons/Total Packers
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