As always, Good Luck and Play Responsibly
LAS VEGAS — 6 weeks and 42 positions into The 7 Best and we are coming off a majorly disappointing session the week prior. Last week’s results yielded a 2-5 ledger and a miss on the week’s Top Choice. The only W’s came with common sense, obvious wins on Iowa State in college and Green Bay professionally. The New York Special also cashed as part of the Teaser Special series. The 7 Best record sits at 19-23, 4-2 Top Choice, season to-date. I can do better. I have done better.
Having said, here are my 7 Best ATS/Total positions for this weekend in College Football and the National Football League. Bullet-point style, raw notes included:
— UCLA at RUTGERS (-4.5)
- UCLA 130th nationally (offensively) in yards, 119th in yards per play, 132nd in rushing yards, 118th in sacks allowed
- RU (defensively) 19th QBR-against and 30th in passing yards per game allowed.
- UCLA (defensively) 130th nationally CMP%/A, 115th QBR-A, 108th sacks for and 110th interceptions
— Michigan at ILLINOIS (+4)
- ILL 4-1 ATS, MICH 1-5 ATS
- MICH offense: 119th nationally in yards, 109th in yards per play, 130th in passing yards, 134th yards per completion and 129th QBR. Big yikes.
- ILL defense T45 in sacks for and 32nd nationally in interceptions.
- ILL offense 15th in QBR and 7th nationally in interceptions.
— KANSAS STATE (-2.5) at West Virginia
- K-ST defense ranks 15th nationally in sacks for
- K-ST has one of the best rush defenses in all of CFB
- The WVU passing offense leaves much to be desired
- K-ST ranks 19th nationally in yards per punt return (15.9)
— NEW ENGLAND/JACKSONVILLE OVER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS
- JAX defense: 31st in scoring, 31st in yards and 29th in yards per play
- NE defense: 21st in scoring, 25th in yards and 21st in yards per play
— EAGLES (-3) at Giants
- The Giants continuously fail the eye test
- NYG D: 30th CMP%/A
- Buy-low spot on PHI (written off by media and fan)
— Seahawks at FALCONS (-3)
- I don’t think much of SEA
- SEA: 1-4-1 ATS, 2-6-2 ATS L10
- ATL defense: 6th in yards per play and 2nd in yards per completion
- ATL offense: 8th in yards, 8th in yards per play, 11th in scoring and T5 in FG ATT & FG-Made
TOP CHOICE
Alabama at TENNESSEE (+3)
Saturday afternoon on Rocky Top, Tennessee getting the points is the Top Choice for this football betting weekend:
- TENN 4-2 ATS
- Volunteer Defense: 4th nationally in yards, yards per play and 3rd nationally YPC/A
- Tennessee is 2nd nationally in 2ndQ P/A
- The Tennessee offense is 10th nationally in yards per game and 10th in scoring
SATURDAY TEASER SPECIAL
3TM 7PT TSR
NEB/IND ⬇️58 — TENN +10 — ILL +11
Full Disclosure: This position was fortified early week and now the number I played the NEB/IND under at (51) is toast. It was set to feature in The 7 Best. Currently, I recommend it in the teaser market to under 57.5. I’m moving the two home-dogs up for a better landing zone, mindful of auxiliary ML positions.
MONEYLINE DELUXE
Tennessee (+40)
Illinois (+60)
SUNDAY TEASER SPECIAL
2TM 7PT TSR
GB/HOU OVER 40.5 — CHIEFS +8.5
- A delicious QB joust early window Sunday gets over this manageable, manipulated number and as I’ve said for years now on my X account anytime Mahomes is a dog of any sort you have to play Chiefs in the TSR market. Really like this one.
MONEYLINE DELUXE
PACKERS (-45)
- In what should be a great game, I’ll ride the hot Packers and think it does just enough to win. A key takeaway could be the difference Sunday and the Green Bay defense leads the NFL in said category. My analysis from last week still applies…LOL
NFL TV MAPS
PREMIER LEAGUE PROLOUGE
PL PRIMER
PL STAT OF THE WEEK
KIT MATCHUP OF THE WEEK
Right then, down to business. The MW8 KMOTW brings us to England’s West Midlands and Molineux Stadium where Wolves play host to City. Wolves obviously will wear its classic home gear. City shouldn’t wear its neon and black aways as it clash blatantly with the Wolves home kit. Therefore, City must wear its maroon third kit with gold trim. In my opinion, a nice kit actually. This will make for a fine kit watch for you the viewer and WOLMCI gets my vote for KMOTW.
MW8 POSITIONS PL
Best Bet Record: 5-2, 71.4%, +EV
2024-25 Published, Personal Bet Record: 17-7, 70.8%, +EV
MW7 Record: 3-1, 1-0 BB, +EV
MW5-7 Record: 10-2, +EV
ASTON VILLA +0.5 (-70)
The Cottagers have been good to myself and readers this term but I see reason to mess with a good thing and take visiting Aston Villa when it travels to Craven Cottage to oppose Fulham on Saturday.
- AVL did the double on FUL last season and won 5 L6 league meetings.
- FUL w/out best lineup as several injuries to squad have set in, including during INTL break
- AVL one defeat in L12 London matches
- Most likely scorelines: 2-1 AVL, 1-1 DRAW, 1-0 AVL…all satisfying this spread
IPSWICH TOWN – EVERTON BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE (-45)
When Everton travels to Portman Road to face home Ipswich Saturday, I’m calling on both teams to find the net:
- EVE winless L14 road matches…which tells me IPS is getting on the board
- In 5 of L6, EVE achieved a xG of 0.9>…Toffees have enough to score one (key word) goal. We’re not trying to paint a Picasso here..more like water colors
- Most likely scorelines: 1-1 draw, 2-1 either way
BEST BET MW8
LIVERPOOL 90+ (-50)
As of this writing, laying 50 cents is a whisper of a dream but it’s still LIV to market pricing (fair market pricing is 70 cents aotw) in this premium fixture for MW8 in the Premiership. The date is Sunday, the venue is Anfield, the opponent is Chelsea and The Reds are my play as the MW8 Best Bet:
- LIV 2 GA, best in competition
- Cucurella and Fofana suspended for CHE (cards)
- Reds big ticket items (Salah, VVD rested from International break)
- My numbers say LIV is 71% to win match which is more valuable than -50 to market.
- My numbers say there are three LIV-favored score results that are more likely than the DRAW
- CHE hasn’t beaten LIV in 90+ since 3/2021 (9 matches)
- Initial, gut feeling points to LIV just being more organized, focus and further ahead in its project.
REFERENCES
- X
- Social Media accounts on X as cited in this work (individual, entity, etc.)
- Pro Football Reference
- Team Rankings
- Covers
- CFB Reference
- Sports Mole
- FB Ref
- Riddell Sports
- Schutt Sports
- 506 Sports
- The xG Philosophy
- CBS Sports App
- William Hill
- Circa Sports
- Darkseid Sports Intelligence
- Darkseid Sports Intellectual Properties
CREATOR’S NOTE: Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the NCAA and/or any of the programs, athletes, social media accounts, universities, football programs or corporate entities written about or depicted in this writing. The author of this writing is an ardent and serious College Football and Miami Hurricanes fan since the Jimmy Johnson regime.
Creator’s Note II: This week’s 7 Best used odds from Circa Sports and William Hill on the day of publish (today). In the opinion of this author, Circa Sports serves as the premier destination in the brick-and-mortar Sportsbook genre in American Gaming and is a certain travel destination for those who visit the great city of Las Vegas. William Hill has the best overall betting menu and is the undisputed champion of soccer betting in the LV market. To be transparent with you, I don’t play at Circa because I’m not welcome. I’ve stopped playing on account at WH as, in my opinion, risk communicates with media entities on what I’m doing, which I find funny because that app doesn’t represent all my action:
Creator’s Note III: The purveyor of Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with Manchester United, the Premier League, any of the above athletes, managers, media entities, social media accounts and/or any other corporate entity, either portrayed in written form or depicted in corresponding images. The author of this writing is a passionate and very serious Manchester United and Premier League fan.
Creator’s Note IV: The purveyor of Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the National Football League, the Green Bay Packers, its players, social media presence and/or corporate entities associated with the team(s) either in written form or depicted in corresponding images. There is no association with any other person, social media account, media entity, corporate entity, etc. The author of this writing is a third-generation Packers fan, a former credentialed-media member covering the franchise, an amateur historian focused on the franchise and is +EV career betting the franchise lifetime. He is a passionate and very serious Packers and National Football League fan. His next game at Lambeau Field will be his 56th.
Darkseid Sports 
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