As always, Good Luck and Play Responsibly.
LAS VEGAS — Five weeks and 35 positions into The 7 Best and finally we are coming off the first week of proper, premium potency. We really knocked-it-up last week, going 6-1 (the sole loss being Hawaii, by a point, in a game I wanted to be on the total and not a side but the number was long gone), including another Top Choice win on the Green Bay Packers. Last week was absolutely the best result in the competition thus far. The 7 Best record sits at 17-18, 4-1 Top Choice, season to-date. Let’s keep a good thing going.
Having said, here are my 7 Best ATS/Total positions for this weekend in College Football and the National Football League:
— PENN STATE (-3.5) at SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Saturday afternoon at The Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, I’ll be on visiting Penn State laying the points. I played it earlier in week in ticket form at a local shop. I’m comfortable laying up to and including four.
Per Team Rankings dot com, PSU is 5th nationally at 34.5 in overall away ranking, meaning it is a quality outfit which can go on the road, even 2,244 miles away and win. And that makes sense, because there’s a lot to like about the Nittany Lions. Per Covers, PSU, offensively, is T25 nationally in YPG, YDS/PP, RY/PG and T10 nationally in CMP%, PY/A and QBR. The USC DL only averages 1.2 sacks per game which is 111th nationally. But the PSU defense, especially, warrants all the superlatives: T5 nationally in YPG, Y/PP, RY/PG and YPC/A. It also ranks 26th nationally in sacks (2.6 per) whilst the USC offense allows about 2 sacks per game. The better team in total laying a manageable number against an erratic opponent…it’s Penn State for me Saturday.
— OHIO STATE/OREGON UNDER 54
When Ohio State visits Oregon in Eugene at Autzen Stadium on Saturday afternoon you best believe I’ll be going under the total. I’ve played this in teaser form and am waiting to see if I can get a better number on Gameday, as public, follow-the-herd wisdom usually calls for overs on these premiere games especially with the potency in the skill positions on both teams.
But, pursuant to yardage surrendered per game, this is Defense 1 (tOSU) and Defense 10 nationally facing each other here. Both these defense are T15 in QBR-against (ORE 7th, tOSU 15th). Both defense are T12 nationally in Sacks For (tOSU 7, ORE 12). I just don’t see this as a track meet. I see this as a tough, physical football game between two good teams in conference play. There’s residue of an under here. So, citing the overall quality of both defenses and the contrarian desire of fading expected over play, I’m on this under in this premium Saturday game.
— IOWA STATE (-3) at WEST VIRGINIA
When Iowa State travels to Morgantown to play West Virginia at Mountaineer Field, I’ll eagerly be backing the visiting Cyclones. I played this in paper ticket form very recently.
ISU is 4-1 ATS thus far and looks every bit of legitimate. Except in superfluous passing metrics, the Cyclones offense is better than the WVU defense across the board. I really like ISU protects the QB as it ranks 7th nationally in Sacks Allowed. It’s a clean offensive unit, too, ranking 5th nationally in Penalties Per Game (4.0). But it’s the ISU defense you better recognize: 13th and 12th nationally in YPG/A & YDS/PP, 5th in PY/A, 6th CMP%/A and 4th QBR/A. The WVU passing offense is bad…I’m talking near the worst in the country. The ISU defense is 6th nationally in scoring (10.0 PPG) and that defense will be the front page on this victory. I’m good laying the points up to and including four.
— KANSAS STATE (-3.5) at COLORADO
Saturday evening at Folsom Field in Boulder I’ll be backing visiting K-ST laying the points. I’m waiting to see if a better number exists on Gameday. Even so, at -3.5, it’s still part of this week’s The 7 Best. I can’t get there with CU. The Buffaloes are a team I follow very closely as my old man graduated from there and obviously was an ardent fan. K-ST, pursuant to yardage gained has the 8th best rushing attack in College Football and is 2nd nationally in YPC (6.9). Stopping the run is not something the Buffaloes want or are known to do as CU ranks 86th nationally in RY-PG/A (156.0) and 89th in YPG/A (379.6). The strength of the CU offense is passing, obviously, and metrically the K-ST defense isn’t great against the pass, but it’s T20 nationally against the run and 43rd in Sacks For. The CU offense is 129th nationally in Sacks Allowed (3.6 per). Citing the better defense and a manageable number, I’ll lay anything up to four with the visiting Wildcats.
— CARDINALS at PACKERS (-5)
Green Bay is the play. I don’t feel the need to go into any greater detail than that. My credentials speaking and writing about Green Bay Packers football from a betting perspective are far beyond reproach, and frankly, is something I should be compensated for doing. I’d be happy to come on (insert platform here) to discuss if you really want my expanded thoughts on Packers Football on the regular. As we learned last week with all the crappy picks on the Rams, no “sharp” or “professional bettor” or “market influencer” or whatever fake title you have out there exists where they supersede my knowledge and process on the Green Bay Packers. No chance, whatsoever. That’s just fact. We’ll leave it at that.
— CHARGERS at BRONCOS (+3)
Right back on Denver in back-to-back weeks when the Broncos host the Chargers Sunday afternoon at Mile High. DEN is 4-1 ATS this season. The LA offense ranks 29th in yards, 31st in passing yards and 32nd in completions. The Broncos offense is suspect but I’ll take solace in the fact LAC (defensively) ranks 31st in CMP%/A. At home, getting points, I’ll take Denver in a matchup of two good defenses.
Top Choice: SAN JOSE STATE (+1) at COLORADO STATE
Saturday afternoon at Canvas Stadium in Fort Collins, Colorado, I’ll be on the visiting San Jose State Spartans getting a point. I played this earlier in the week in paper ticket form locally getting a half-point better. More on this later…
Get to know the San Jose State air attack. The Spartans rank 8th nationally in Passing Yards whilst the Colorado State defense ranks 112 in the same stat against. The Rams defense ranks 120th in Sacks. Colorado State is impotent offensively, ranking 98th nationally in Yards and 101st in Yards Per Play. I feel like I have the better team in total and as of this writing I am getting points. San Jose State (7-3 ATS L10) is the Top Choice for this betting weekend.
“Tip of the Forehead” Bettor’s Note:
One could structure this position with ML bets (SJSU) and heavy inclusion in the teaser market insofar as the number remains +1 or better. Something to keep in mind.
SATURDAY TEASER SPECIAL
2TM 7PT TSR
SAN JOSE STATE +8.5 — tOSU/ORE UNDER 61
Earlier in the week one could’ve had SJSU +1.5 and I took advantage of that— in the teaser market. Hope you did too. SJSU is live and surely should cover one full score. In a joust of two superlative defensive teams, I’ll tease this total up and play under in Eugene.
SUNDAY TEASER SPECIALS
3TM 7PT TSR
EAGLES -2 — RAIDERS +10 — BRONCOS + 10
Teasing Philadelphia down seems pretty straightforward. Teasing the Raiders up is sketchy considering the QB change and the Davante Adam’s saga, but I say 10 points is a proper landing zone to parachute inside of superfluous to the fact Pittsburgh has overachieved and is a decent football team. If I like DEN at +3 (see above), then yes, I like it at +10 too.
2TM 7 PT TSR
“THE NEW YORK SPECIAL”
GIANTS +10.5 — BUF/NYJ OVER 34
Full discourse: NYG almost made The 7 Best card. Yeah, the Malik Nabers injury is suboptimal, but this team shows fight and 10 plus a hook provides a landing zone. I have to believe the Jets offense will be at its best now that the HC (Saleh) is gone and it is Aaron Rodgers’s team. Surely the offense will produce, right? The Jets D is fine quality but I think Josh Allen and the Bills get something. Thinking we get enough from both teams to go over a more manageable number.
REFERENCES
- X
- Various individual and corporate accounts on X as cited in this work
- Pro Football Reference
- CFB Reference
- Covers
- Team Rankings
- Circa Sports
- William Hill US
- Riddell Sports
- CBS Sports App
- Getty Images
- Darkseid Sports Intelligence
CREATOR’S NOTE: Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the NCAA and/or any of the athletes, social media accounts, universities, football programs or corporate entities written about or depicted in this writing.
Creator’s Note II: This week’s 7 Best used odds from Circa Sports and William Hill on the day of publish (today). In the opinion of this author, Circa Sports serves as the premier destination in the brick-and-mortar Sportsbook genre in American Gaming and is a certain travel destination for those who visit the great city of Las Vegas. William Hill has the best overall betting menu and is the undisputed champion of soccer betting in the LV market.
Creator’s Note III: The purveyor of Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the National Football League, its franchises, its players, social media presence and/or corporate entities associated with the team(s) either in written form or depicted in corresponding images. There is no association with any other person, social media account, media entity, corporate entity, etc. The author of this writing is a third-generation Packers fan, a former credentialed-media member covering the franchise, an amateur historian focused on the franchise and is +EV career betting the franchise lifetime. He is a passionate and very serious Packers and National Football League fan. His next game at Lambeau Field will be his 56th.
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