As always, Good Luck and Play Responsibly.
This week’s 7 Best features content from the Premier League!
LAS VEGAS — Four weeks and 28 positions into The 7 Best and finally we are coming off the first week where the number truly mattered. If you had Duke last week at the time of publish, you lost. If you had Duke on gameday, you won. For me, this was the difference between a 4-3 week and a 3-4 week ATS. The 7 Best record sits at 11-17, 3-1 Top Choice, season to-date. The aim here is simply get back to winning weeks and deliver the Top Choice on the regular.
Having said, here are my 7 Best ATS positions for this weekend in College Football and the National Football League:
— SYRACUSE (+6) at UNLV
I’ll try the visiting Orange Friday evening in Las Vegas. I really like Syracuse QB Kyle McCord. The Ohio State transfer has been great so far. UNLV is coming off a program-defining win and could be due for a letdown superfluous to the fact the Rebels are a really good football team. ‘Cuse will have to do it via the air as the UNLV rush defense is stellar. The Orange rank 1st nationally in Passing Attempts, 3rd in Passing Yards and 2nd in Completions. Would you believe UNLV is 128th nationally in Defensive Penalties? Syracuse ranks 2nd nationally in the same stat and I think The Orange will play the cleaner, more energetic game to at least cover the number.
— PITTSBURGH/NORTH CAROLINA UNDER 64.5 POINTS
I’m going UNDER the total Saturday high Noon at Kenan Stadium. I have real reservations about North Carolina in the wake of the collapse versus Duke last week, in its rivalry game. I don’t like the UNC QB much at all. The UNC defense ranks 17th nationally in CMP%/A and 20th nationally in Sacks For. For UNC to have success, its star RB and NFL prospect (Omarion Hampton) will have to run supreme on Pittsburgh. Sounds good, but the Panthers defense ranks 13th nationally in YPC/A. The strength of the PITT defense plus my lack of faith in the Tar Heel offense has me on the UNDER in what I feel is an inflated number.
— Iowa at OHIO STATE (-18)
It’s the Buckeyes for me Saturday afternoon in Columbus. I’m not an Iowa Football hater like many in the space are but tOSU is on a different, greater level. This is a comprehensive Buckeye outfit and is, simply, better on both sides of the ball. I can’t see Iowa scoring much — if at all — as tOSU is 2nd nationally in Yards Against, 3rd Yds. Per Play, 4th Rushing Yards Against, 3rd Yds. Per Carry, and 8th Yds. Per Completion. I don’t need to waste your time in saying tOSU is the better offensive football team. I’m comfortable laying up to and including -21.
Ohio State Statbuster: The Buckeyes rank 1st nationally offensively in 3rd Quarter Points For (15.8).
— HAWAII (+2.5) at San Diego State
Full disclosure: my initial desire was to play the UNDER at 51.5 but that number is long gone AOTW. So, I’ll try the short road dog instead. This is a play on the Hawaii defense, which is to be recognized and respected. Across the board it bests the SDSU offense. The SDSU OL has had pass-protection issues. I have the better defense, getting points. I’m not much for “Schedule Guy” as the gap in CFB in 2024 between where SDSU is, the FCS and (insert poor FBS school here) is the smallest it has ever been. A play on the Rainbow Warriors it is for me Saturday.
— COLTS/JAGUARS OVER 45.5 POINTS
Yes, there are QB inefficiencies and injuries (Jonathan Taylor OUT for Indy, Anthony Richardson QUESTIONABLE, but was not ruled OUT Friday, so I assume he’ll play) here with both these teams but the major, cornerstone game theory is these are two teams with bad defenses and I’m thinking each offense will get right on Sunday in Jacksonville. The JAX defense ranks 30th in Y/A and 29th in Y/PP. Moreover, 31st in PY/A, 30th in both PY/CMP & PY/ATT and 27th in Sacks. IND has the worst defense in the league pursuant to yardage surrendered and ranks 31st in RY/A. Indy pass-defense metrics are bottom third in the league. I know both QB’s have struggled, but I think they find some form and spearhead their offenses to success which should equate to a point total over this manageable number.
— Raiders at BRONCOS (-3)
In a bitter rivalry game Sunday afternoon at Mile High, I’ll be backing the home Broncos. Would you believe the Raiders are 9-1 S/U and 9-1 ATS versus Denver in its L10 meetings? But I can’t back LVR here. The Denver defense is too strong, ranking 1st league-wide in Yards Per Play and Yards Per Completion Against. It ranks 3rd in Total Yards and Pass Yards Against. The Broncos are 2nd in the NFL in Sacks. The Denver OL protects Bo Nix as it allowed 1.0 SPG, 3rd best in the league. I also have chemistry concerns with LVR as of this writing. Let’s see how the Davante Adams situation unfolds. Nevertheless, I’m backing the better defense, the better FG kicking game, the better pass-protecting OL…heck I’ll even take the meaningless “Due Theory” too. It’s the Broncos for me Sunday.
Top Choice: PACKERS (-3) at Rams
In what should feel like a neutral-site game citing the traveling Green Bay fan base, I’m selecting the Packers laying the points as my Top Choice for this football weekend Sunday afternoon in Inglewood. I’ll spare you the stats, opinions, game theories and Base Speculation (BS) to say this: Green Bay has LA’s number. Packers always play well v the Rams in the LaFleur/McVay era. Jordan Love is healthier. So is Jaire Alexander. In the post-Aaron Donald era, I can’t make a case for the Rams. The Los Angeles defense ranks dead last in Yards Per Play, Rushing Yards Against and Yards Per Completion. It ranks 31st in Scoring. I would think Green Bay is laser-focused coming off a home loss to wretched Minnesota in a game which it showed grit, resolve and tremendous “Fight for the G,” even in losing. With confidence and panache this Sunday, it’s Green Bay.
GBP STAT OF THE WEEK
SATURDAY TEASER SPECIAL
*2TM 7PT TSR*
DUKE/GT UNDER 60 — HAWAII/SDSU UNDER 55.5
I’m usually not into the teasing college totals scene but here we are. Real simple: Early week, both these unders were a play. Duke/GT at 55 and HAW/SDSU at 51.5. Now, those numerals are a whisper of a dream. So we tease both back up. If you like both pre-total drop, you definitely like them at my numbers above. Here, the juice is worth the squeeze and looking to satisfy both conditions isn’t a big ask.
SUNDAY TEASER SPECIAL
*2TM 7PT TSR*
JETS +10 — SEAHAWKS PK
There is some separation metrically between New York and Minnesota but not 10 points worth in my opinion. I like this is Aaron Rodgers’s second go around with the London voyage as he did it previously with Green Bay. Both teams are strong defensively, however, MIN ranks 32nd in (Passing) Attempts, Completions and Yards Against. This is the path for Rodgers and NYJ. Give me more points there for a landing zone. The Giants will be without Malik Nabers and thus questions remain to its offensive potency in his absence. Seattle has the best passing offense in football, according to certain metrics. Seahawks clearly the better team and at home. All we’re asking here is for the Seahawks to win the game.
PREMIER LEAGUE PROLOGUE
KIT MATCHUP OF THE WEEK
Right then, down to business. The MW7 KMOTW brings us to the Prem’s southern seaside city where Brighton hosts Spurs at Amex Stadium Sunday morning here Stateside. I expect The Seagulls to wear its classic, home, blue and whites. It’s out-of-the-ordinary for clubs to wear its 3rd kit at home, so I can’t see the alternate look making an appearance. Spurs wore its 3rd greens mid-week. The away teal would be a better look and less of a kit clash than the classic, home, white kit, which it could wear. Either or, this will make for a fine kit watch for the viewer and BHATOT gets my vote for KMOTW.
PL STATS OF THE WEEK
Analyst on X
MW7 POSITIONS PL
Best Bet Record: 4-2, 66.6%, +EV
2024-25 EPL Published Bet Record: 14-6, 70%, +EV
MW6 Positions: 4-0, 100%, +EV
MW5-6, Record: 7-1, 87.5%, +EV
- All odds via William Hill, the industry leader and undisputed champion of Soccer betting in the Las Vegas market.
I’m too dialed-in right now and focused on winning that — while appreciated — I have no time for the superlatives being thrown my way regarding recent results. Thanks. Next. Now then, for MW7:
FULHAM +1.5 (+25)
- The theme of this week in spread positions is to try and catch greater clubs who had European play earlier in the week napping and that’s the plan here at Ethiad Stadium Saturday morning here stateside. Maybe MCI isn’t at its best? Maybe it grinds out a win? Maybe it shares the points? FUL has been great so far and is an ascending project under Marco Silva, who it appears has finally found Valhalla in West London. I think The Cottagers have another performance in them and parachute inside the number, at minimum.
3-TEAM BTTS PARLAY (+305)
*LEIBOU, BREWOL, EVENEW*
- The juice is loose here looking to go 3/3 on a three-team parlay to get there with all three aforementioned matches to satisfy Both Teams To Score requirements. If you’d like a more defensive approach, this same ALT PAR pays -130 to satisfy OVER 1.5 goal requirements.
AVLMUN UNDER 3.5 GOALS (-70)
- Citing Villa had European brilliance v Bayern mid-week and could be due for a letdown mixed with United’s impotency in league goal-scoring coupled with the fact it played in Europa League play on Thursday (another sad showing in a 3-3 draw) I have no choice other than to play the UNDER 3.5 at Villa Park Sunday. My numbers say anything under -225 (at 3.5) is of value. I’m not into playing totals on whole numbers, so I just assume pay for the extra half goal to go under 3.5.
MW7 BEST BET
CRYSTAL PALACE +1.5 (-60)
- Much like the MCIFUL joust, I’m looking to catch the better side napping due to its mid-week European play. If you play FUL, you have to play CRY. Except this time, I have the home side, and it’s the early kick-off which we all know is a slow burn. Liverpool had European play mid-week and maybe some level of squad rotation is due here? Getting more than a goal? I’m in with this week’s MW7 PL Best Bet .
THE “TIP OF THE FOREHEAD” BETTOR’S NOTE: Anytime I endorse a BTTS position, I’m also endorsing OVR 1.5 in ALT markets in that match, if you’re looking for a more defensive approach to your wager (meaning that luxury is juiced, price-wise). Something to keep in mind always when constructing PAR/ALT PAR positions…
REFERENCES
- X
- Various individual and corporate accounts on X as cited in this work
- Sports Logos dot net
- Covers dot com
- CBS Sports App
- Circa Sports
- William Hill
- Pro Football Reference
- CFB Reference
- FB Ref
- City of Las Vegas
- Getty Images
- Premier League Logo PNG
- Darkseid Sports Intelligence
CREATOR’S NOTE: Darkest Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the NCAA and/or any of the persons, social media accounts, universities, football programs or corporate entities written about or depicted in this writing.
Creator’s Note II: This week’s 7 Best used odds from Circa Sports and William Hill on the day of publish (today). In the opinion of this author, Circa Sports serves as the premier destination in the brick-and-mortar Sportsbook genre in American Gaming and is a certain travel destination for those who visit the great city of Las Vegas.
Creator’s Note III: The purveyor of Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with any of the above athletes, managers, clubs, leagues, media entities, social media accounts and/or any other corporate entity, either portrayed in written form or depicted in corresponding images. The author of this writing is a passionate and very serious Manchester United and Premier League fan.
Creator’s Note IV: The purveyor of Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with the National Football League, the Green Bay Packers, its players, social media presence and/or corporate entities associated with the team(s) either in written form or depicted in corresponding images. There is no association with any other person, social media account, media entity, corporate entity, etc. The author of this writing is a third-generation Packers fan, a former credentialed-media member covering the franchise, an amateur historian focused on the franchise and is +EV career betting the franchise lifetime. He is a passionate and very serious Packers and National Football League fan. His next game at Lambeau Field will be his 56th.
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