As always, Good Luck and Play Responsibly.
LAS VEGAS — Three weeks and 15 positions into The 7 Best and finally we are coming off a winning week (4-3, 1-0 Top Choice). The aim here is to stack on success (8-13, 2-1 Top Choice YTD) and return to normality where winning ways are a regular thing.
Having that said, here are my 7 Best ATS positions for this weekend in College Football and the National Football League:
Tough card this week, IMO…
— NIU (+7.5) at NC State
It’s Northern Illinois for me Saturday afternoon in Raleigh. Could the Huskies pull off another upset? If it can go into Notre Stadium and get a win then it can do the same again at Carter-Finley Stadium. The Wolfpack have underachieved thus far. There were people in the preseason who thought NC State would challenge for an ACC Title. At 2-2, that now seems unlikely. Look how comprehensive the NIU Offense and Defense is compared to the opposing unit for NC State (corresponding national rankings in key metrics are in parenthesis)
This is not outside NIU’s purview. At 7 I’m in. At 7.5 or better? An easy, instant call to action. I actually like NIU is coming off a loss to Buffalo after the Notre Dame upset.
Did you know?: Since HC Thomas Hammock arrived in 2019, NIU is 15-5 ATS as a road dog. In the last three seasons against Power Four opposition, NIU is 4-2 ATS as a road dog with three wins outright!
NIU Stat of the Week: The Huskies rank 6th nationally in offensive penalties per game (3.7).
— UNC at DUKE (-2.5)
It’s the home Blue Devils (4-0) in a rivalry game celebrating 100 years of Duke Football Saturday afternoon in Durham at Wallace Wade Stadium. The Duke defense ranks 18th nationally in Yards Against, 9th in Yards Per Play Against, 14th in Pass Yards Against, 4th in Yards Per Completion and 13th in QBR Against and 5th in Sacks For. Those are the metrics of a serious defensive unit. UNC is a marginally better offensive team in total but Duke is commensurate or better in the passing game.
FWIW, this position was runner-up for Top Choice honors this week.
Duke FB Stat of the Week: The Blue Devils are 22nd nationally in FG% Against at Wallace Wade Stadium.
— Fresno State at UNLV (-2.5)
I don’t have much in the way of stats, rankings or game theory but I do think Coach Odom and the players will rally around each other, given current events, and get a W tomorrow at Allegiant Stadium.
— STEELERS (-2) at Colts
With that QB and that run defense still, there is no way I’m backing Indianapolis and will continue to fade the Colts until further notice. If the Chicago Bears weren’t terrible, the Indy would be 0-3. The Pittsburgh defensive metrics speak for themselves. The Steelers are averaging 8.7 PPG/A in addition to what is depicted below.
— BROWNS (-1.5) at Raiders
Very simply, I fancied Las Vegas all week until I learned the extent of the Raiders injury situation. Now, I’ll fade my original play and back Cleveland. I think a key lesson prospective +EV need to learn is it is ok to fade your original mode of thinking as opposed to reaching for or chasing something else in the market. It’s ok to admit you have something wrong.
— Vikings at PACKERS (-2.5)
We look to win in three consecutive weeks backing Green Bay. I said in The 7 Best v 3.0 I thought Jordan Love would play this week. Anything beyond that from Green Bay is subterfuge and gamesmanship, IMO. If it’s Malik Willis, so be it. I’m just as concerned to the health of CB Jaire Alexander as anyone else. Green Bay could be down to reserve Cornerbacks. The Packers defense is to be respected though as it ranks 10th in RY/A, 8th CMP%/A, 6th in Sacks/G, and overall leads the league in takeaways and turnover-differential. The Green Bay rushing attack is the best in football as of this writing. The Packers are hot and feeling good about themselves. It’s a home game at Lambeau. In a matchup of two strong head coaches, I’ll back the home Packers here in a bitter rivalry game. #GoPackGo
TOP CHOICE:
NAVY (-3.5) at UAB
This is the United States Naval Academy Football Team we’re discussing here you guys. All hands on deck. As a 3.5 point choice — to anything under 6 — that’s a play for me with confidence and panache Saturday afternoon in Birmingham.
The Navy offense: 46th nationally in Rushing Yards and 39th in YPC. But it can throw the ball too as the Midshipmen rank 1st nationally in Y/CMP and 9th in Y/A. Navy protects the passer as it is 9th nationally in Sacks Allowed Per Game. To be fair, the strength of UAB is its pass defense.
But defensively, in total, is where the Midshipmen will not be denied here. The Navy rush defense is among the best in the country. The Navy passing metrics against favor its defensive unit over the UAB offensive metrics for, in the passing game.
Lastly, Navy is stronger in the FG-kicking game.
With the better team in total and specifically the more physical defense, I’ll back the Midshipmen here laying -3.5 on the road as this week’s Top Choice.
Speaking of the Navy and wholly superfluous to anything being discussed here. Here is an image of the USS Hurricane… because why not?!?
REFERENCES
- Getty Images
- X
- CFB Programs and NFL franchises on X (cited specifically above)
- Lambeau Field on X
- CBS Sports App
- For Football Reference
- College Football Reference
- Covers
- Unabated Sports
- Oddschecker US
- Circa Sports
- William Hill
- Wikipedia
- CNET
- City of Las Vegas
- Darkseid Sports Intelligence
Creator’s Note: This week’s 7 Best used odds from Circa Sports at high Noon, sharp, PST, on the day of publish (today). In the opinion of this author, Circa Sports serves as the premier destination in the brick-and-mortar Sportsbook genre in American Gaming and is a certain travel destination for those who visit the great city of Las Vegas.
CREATOR’S NOTE II: Darkest Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with any of the persons, social media accounts, universities, franchises or corporate entities written about or depicted in this writing.
Darkseid Sports 
Leave a comment