A look at the key fixtures, kit matchups, Best Bets and more as prologue to Matchweek 6 in The Best League There Is.
LAS VEGAS — At the confluence of early group-stage European play and September’s conclusion is where we find Matchweek 6 in England’s Premier League. There are 7 fixtures on the Saturday schedule, two fixtures on the Sunday schedule and one fixture on Monday including two Top 10 in-the-table meetings in the Premiership as Newcastle hosts City and Chelsea hosts Brighton. There’s even a classic Big 6 confrontation when Spurs pilgrimage to Old Trafford to oppose United.
PL AT A GLANCE
NUMERIC LENS
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ALTERNATE VIEW
If you follow the Premier League or any of its 20 clubs, or any club within the reach EFL or FA tentacles for that matter, you are germane to the situation unfolding with City as there is no bigger story in the Prem — or even global football really — as we sit here today. Here is the latest relevant, significant news, as of this writing:
HERE STATESIDE
The (American) Premier League community is basking in the glow of another wildly successful Fan Fest. Chicago really put on a show last week. Full marks.
KEY FIXTURE OF THE WEEK
Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur — TOTMUN
With respect to NEWMCI and CHEBHA, whom are competing in T10 of the table fixtures, I’ll select a classic, Big 6 matchup when United hosts Spurs Sunday morning (stateside) at The Theatre of Dreams, Old Trafford, as the MW6 KFOTW.
Two teams at a similar crossroads in its early season we will see Sunday. Both have been inconsistent. Both have had quality, danger-area scoring chance issues, superfluous to possession and xG. Both have a manager whom media and fan aren’t 100% certain each is the correct man for his respective job. Both club have talent. Both clubs are owned by proud owners who don’t like to lose.
Very simply, these two clubs sit 10th and 11th here early in the table. Maybe TOTMUN will serve as an early-term indicator as to which one of these clubs will pull themselves out of the doldrums and compete for European play and which one won’t? And for that reason, MUNTOT is my Key Fixture of the Week for MW6, in addition to its obvious name brand and historical value.
MUNTOT DATA
MUNTOT HISTORICAL DATA
For a detailed summary of the MUNTOT fixture from a historical perspective, go to https://fbref.com/en/stathead/matchup/teams/361ca564/19538871/Tottenham-Hotspur-vs-Manchester-United-History
RELEVANT READING…
For a comprehensive view of the world’s richest clubs, refer to this work from Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/lists/soccer-valuations/
PL MW6 STATBUSTERS
We’re getting defensive with the stats this week!
MW6 KEY NUMBER — FOUR
KIT MATCHUP OF THE WEEK
Right then, down to business. The MW6 KMOTW brings us to Gtech Community Stadium in West London where home Brentford plays visiting West Ham. The Bees most likely will wear its classic red, white and black home gear. Brentford could even wear its third pink kit and it would work. The Hammers should wear its away black kit. It wore its white and maroon third kit mid-week, so I can’t see it here. Anywho, this will make for a fine kit watch for the viewer and BREWHU gets my vote for KMOTW.
MW6 POSITIONS PL
Best Bet Record: 3-2, 60%, +EV negligible
2024-25 EPL Published Bet Record: 10-6, 62.5%, +EV
MW5 Positions: 3-1, 75%, +EV
We were really walking in high cotton last weekend, weren’t we? In addition to The 7 Best (Vol.3) and Bonus Bets – Boxing successes… readers here and my followers on X were delivered the goods. Now let’s stack on success this week:
Apologies for another chalky week. It is what it is. I thought it was a tough card this week…
FULHAM +0.5 (-60)
- My initial, gut-feeling was to play under 2.5 goals here (-30) but i just assume try the visitors on the spread. Fulham is a nice surprise this term and an ascending project. FUL is averaging an xG of 1.36 in its 5 PL matches thus far and has put at least two in the back of the net on three separate occasions. Forest has been a rock defensively and Nuno Espirito Santo has The Tricky Trees in a good place but the absence of Morgan Gibbs-White is a key factor I cannot get over. So much of the NFO game plan with the ball goes through him. In his absence I have major potency concerns and see no reason why Fulham can get a result away. I also endorse FUL Draw No Bet (+15) but The Cottagers on the spread is the play here. I seriously considered making this the Best Bet for MW6.
EVERTON – CRYSTAL PALACE BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE (-45)
- Would you believe Palace is winless in its L9 visits to Goodison Park and that The Toffees have only lost outright to The Eagles once in its L19 PL meetings? So historical data tells me EVE can get on the board. Recents data — Toffees have scored 5 goals in its L3 PL matches — tells me EVE can get on the board. And EVE’s 14 goals conceded in PL play coupled with The Eagles average xG of about 1.63 tells me Palace is surely getting on the board. When surmised as such, BTTS seems pretty straightforward.
WOLVERHAMPTON — LIVERPOOL BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE (-45)
- The thinking here is Wolves catch Liverpool napping and get on the board. WOL has scored in 4 of its PL 5 matches this term and has scored at least once in its L6 in all competitions. LIV just dissected WHU in domestic cup mid-week play, so a squad rotation is a possibility, which theoretically, generally, would help the thinking behind this play. Wolves are terrible defensively, have allowed 14 goals in the PL and with a rotated squad or not, there’s no reason to think The Reds aren’t getting on the board here. FYI, BTTS is cheaper to play compared to WOL To Score by 15 cents.
BEST BET MW6 PL
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR +0.5 (-50)
- Impossible for me to back Manchester United when it isn’t scoring goals. I have very little belief in Erik ten Hag and his project as of this writing. There are potency and consistency reservations here. I just think this is a good spot for Ange Postecoglou’s side. United was lethargic and uninspiring in mid-week Europa League play against a lesser foe… for me a bad sign. TOT has scored 9 goals in league play and I’m thinking when Spurs answered the call last week coming from behind to discard BRE, that was the spark it needed to get its season going full scale. Forget about BS tactical or xG theories, I’m going with gut-feeling and the eye test to select Spurs +0.5 as the PL MW6 Best Bet. I also endorse TOT DNB (+05) but on the spread is the official play here.
BETTOR’S NOTE: Anytime I endorse a BTTS position, I’m also endorsing OVR 1.5 in ALT markets in that match, if you’re looking for a more defensive approach to your wager (meaning that luxury is juiced, price-wise). Something to keep on the tip of your forehead when constructing PAR/ALT PAR positions…
RELATED: The early-term relegation discussion and relevant betting odds via William Hill. (Odds current as of this writing and are informational and entertainment use only, persuant to this writing)
As always, Good Luck and Play Responsibly.
REFERNCES
- X
- NBC Sports Soccer on X
- Time Sport on X
- Matt Lawton on X
- Statman Dave on X
- Opta Analyst on X
- Opta Joe on X
- PFF FC on X
- PL in USA on X
- Premier League Clubs on X
- Centredevils on X
- Premier League Mornings
- USA Network
- Peacock
- Sky Sports Football
- William Hill
- William Hill App
- Soccer Warehouse dot com
- Premier League dot com
- Sky Sports dot com
- Sports Mole
- CBS Sports App
- Forbes
- Darkseid Sports Intelligence
Creator’s Note: The purveyor of Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with any of the above athletes, managers, clubs, leagues, media entities, social media accounts and/or any other corporate entity, either portrayed in written form or depicted in corresponding images. The author of this writing is a passionate and very serious Manchester United and Premier League fan.
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