As always, Good Luck and Play Responsibly.
LAS VEGAS — Two weeks and 10 positions into The 7 Best and I can confidently and safely say I have failed grossly to meet my standards. Back-to-back 2-5 (4-10, 1-1 Top Choice, total) weeks is a full scale disaster. Form is temporary, class is permanent. I have to lean on that now.
Having that said, here are my 7 Best ATS positions for this weekend in College Football and the National Football League:
— UCLA at LSU (-21)
- It’s the Tigers for me Saturday. UCLA is nowhere near LSU’s level. I don’t get nor care about line moves. This is an eye test-based position cited upon facts of greater talent and a bad spot for UCLA going cross-country to face a superior team. I’ll take Brian Kelly over DeShaun Foster any day. Should be all LSU.
— UTAH (PK) at Oklahoma State
- My initial reaction to this matchup was to take the home underdog. Originally, I thought the wrong team was favored. But now, it seems Utah QB Cam Rising is playing and the more R&D I do on this match, the data comes back to backing Utah. Utah offensively ranks T40 nationally in rushing yards, yards per completion and QBR. Utes rank T50 in yards and yards per play. T100 in pass yards and completions. And now Rising is back? Defensively, both teams are commensurate in certain pass defense metrics but all other areas favor Utah. I’ll take Kyle Whittingham over Mike Gundy, respectfully. My only reservation is in the FG-kicking game for Utah. Hopefully that is a non-issue.
— PACKERS (+2.5) at Titans
- It’s Green Bay for me Sunday. Malik Willis was better than expected and the running game was awesome last week. I’m calling for more of the same this week. I like the Green Bay defense — which leads the league in takeaways — against Titans QB Will Levis here. GB had 3 INT’s last week and Levis is turnover and bad decision-prone. I have to think Willis will have a chip on his shoulder. No way can I see Jordan Love playing. That comes next week and I’ll take whatever points, again like last week, I can get with the better roster here.
— BEARS (PK) At Colts
- There is no way anybody can back Indianapolis with this QB and this run defense. Period. Great spot for Chicago.
— Giants at BROWNS (-6.5)
- I look at this like Cleveland has yet to play its best game. It did beat JAX last week and the CLE QB looked professional, at least, so I’m led to believe the Browns have a performance in them. Coupled with this being NYG’s B2B road game — with a suspect offense — I just can’t see it from Big Blue.
— Jaguars at BILLS (-5.5)
- Smallish, sketchy line for sure, but I’m undeterred here. Very simple: Jacksonville has been terrible so far, as has Doug Peterson, and I’m going to need to see it before I back them or not look to fade them in any capacity.
TOP CHOICE: RUTGERS +3.5 at Virginia Tech
- Give me the points and a dusting of the money line with underdog RU tomorrow. Bad spot for VT with the Miami rivalry game next week. RU: 15th nationally in yards, 21st yards per play, 4th in rushing yards, 11th in rushing attempts, 8th in yards per rush, 44th yards per completion and 23rd in QBR. Let the running game and defense take RU there. The new Scarlet Knights QB is a dramatic improvement over the last starter. RU has the better defense in total, especially in the passing game as RU ranks 19th nationally in pass yards against, 15th in yards per completion and 12th in QBR against. Better team, better spot. Give me Rutgers as this week’s Top Choice.
BONUS BET — Boxing
🥊: Daniel Dubois +360
🥊: Dubois KO +650
- End of the line for Anthony Joshua I’m afraid. I have the younger, hungrier fighter. I like Dubois boxing pedigree and technical skills more than I like Joshua’s. I don’t like AJ’s career trajectory lately. Dubois is better than anything AJ has been in with recently. Somebody is getting knocked out here, I say it’s AJ in an upset win for Daniel Dubois.
A quality read on the fight from ESPN at https://www.espn.com/boxing/story/_/id/41344585/anthony-joshua-daniel-dubois-weigh-ibf-heavyweight-title-fight
REFERENCES
- Darkseid Sports Intelligence
- X
- Covers
- Circa Sports
- William Hill
- Pro Football Reference
- CFB Reference
- CBS Sports App
Creator’s Note: This week’s 7 Best used odds from Circa Sports at high Noon, sharp, PST, on the day of publish (today). In the opinion of this author, Circa Sports serves as the premier destination in the brick-and-mortar Sportsbook genre in American Gaming and is a certain travel destination for those who visit the great city of Las Vegas.
CREATOR’S NOTE II: Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with any of the persons, social media accounts, universities, franchises or corporate entities written about or depicted in this writing.
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