A look at the top fixtures, kit matchups, Best Bets and more in The Best League There Is.
LAS VEGAS — At the confluence of early domestic cup and European play is where we find Matchweek Five in England’s Premier League. There are 8 fixtures on the Saturday schedule and two fixtures on the Sunday schedule including the Premiership’s current rivalry du jour when City plays host to Arsenal in top-of-the-table business with appointment viewing.
“If you want to achieve big things you need to have the mentality of trying to win every single game. That is what we need to do and that is what we want to do.” — Arsenal Midfielder Jorginho via EuroSport (9.17.24)
PL AT A GLANCE
The big situation here Stateside this weekend is it’s the first Premier League Fan Festival of this new season. This time around, it comes to Chicago.
The big story this week at fan and pundit levels across the pond and beyond revolves around the Spurs lack of goal-scoring potency. The possession is there, as is the xG (TOT average xG is 1.38), generally speaking, but the goals are not.
Speaking of xG and statistics, for a detailed voyage into the Premier League to date from a numeric lens, go to FB Ref here at https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/Premier-League-Stats
KEY FIXTURE OF THE WEEK
City vs Arsenal — MCIARS
Well it’s pretty straightforward. We all know which MW5 joust receives top-billing this weekend, don’t we. It’s City and Arsenal. The first installment of the head-to-head confrontations between whom many believe are the in-season — in addition to the preseason — league title favorites. MCI comes into the match with four wins in four matches and a competition-best 11 goals scored. ARS sits merely two points behind MCI heading into this early season match and is one of three clubs (MCI, ARS, NEW) to net 10+ goals so far this term.
RELEVANT INJURY NEWS: On Thursday, Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta revealed Gunners midfielder Martin Odegaard will miss significant time with injury. He missed the NLD last weekend. For more, go to https://www.premierleague.com/news/4121838
MCIARS DATA
Basic MCIARS fixture data via http://www.premierleague.com (images edited)
MCIARS HISTORICAL DATA
For a comprehensive exploration of the MCIARS fixture from a historical ethos, refer expressly to https://fbref.com/en/stathead/matchup/teams/b8fd03ef/18bb7c10/Manchester-City-vs-Arsenal-History
MCIARS STATBUSTER
MCIARS MOMENTS OF CLASS
PL MW5 STATBUSTER
KIT MATCHUP OF THE WEEK
Right then, down to business. The MW5 KMOTW brings us to Selhurst Park in south-central London where Crystal Palace hosts Manchester United. This is a rare “double” in a sense for Man Utd as the Red Devils in its new blue aways were KMOTW-crowned last week. But the back-to-back honors are warranted here, surely. I expect The Eagles to wear its classic, home red and blues. But since red (home) and blue (away) have already been done and it clashes with the Palace gear, I’m calling on this to be a proper spot for the visiting Red Devils to officially debut its new Third Kit! If not, I guess the classic home red will suffice, but the 3rd-look whites would be better this week as it would make for a fine kit watch for the viewer and CRYMUN gets my vote for KMOTW.
MW POSITIONS PL
Best Bet Record: 2-2
2024-24 EPL Published Bet Record: 7-5, 58.3%, +EV
MW4 Position Record: 1-3, -EV
Get the chalkboard out, folks. One of those weeks… As always, Good Luck and Play Responsibly.
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR 90+ (-80)
- Is this where we are with Spurs? A home draw or loss to Brentford? Goodness me, I hope not. In fairness to BRE, The Bees have overachieved thus far and the Mbeumo/Wissa partnership has been fruitful. I’ll spare you BS tactical theories and xG speculation to say Ange Postecoglou *needs* this. Spurs *need* this. And I loathe the *need* angle. I don’t think TOT is *that* bad. This isn’t how it will go for Spurs. It can’t be. Form is temporary, class is permanent. Spurs find some of its class and earn all three points here.
FULHAM-NEWCASTLE OVER 2.5 GOALS (-45)
- I’m thinking goals at Craven Cottage Saturday. I look at it like 2-1 either way is the most likely outcome. If I think there’s a better likelihood for goals, something like 2-2 wouldn’t surprise me. My numbers say 62% this goes over, which for me equals a better rate than 45 cents, generally, so there’s value there. BTTS is offered at 90 cents and gets my endorsement as well specifically in ALT PAR markets w/ BTTS or OVR 1.5.
CRYSTAL PALACE – MANCHESTER UNITED BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE (-90)
- Both teams find the net at Selhurst Park. Man Utd is coming off its best offensive week (3 goals in last weekend at SOU, pumped 7 in v Barnsley in EFL Cup mid-week play) in a long effing time. The xG was there for Palace v LEI last week (2.5). The Eagles are averaging a 1.38 xG this term. The numbers, the eye test, the gut feeling historically knowing/watching this fixture…BTTS is the play for me.
BEST BET PL MW5
LEICESTER – EVERTON BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE (-45)
- Very simply, I have this a 2-1 either side or 1-1 match, at minimum. EVE is so bad, LEI could exceed that and The Toffees have done nothing to suggest it can keep a clean sheet. So the real question is can EVE get on the board? I say yes. There are no other outcomes I have here that fail BTTS. Playing BTTS is a dollar plus cheaper than playing EVE to score (-300). So, at 45 cents? I’m in.
BETTOR’S NOTE: Anytime I endorse a BTTS position, I’m also endorsing OVR 1.5 in ALT markets in that match. Something to keep on the tip of your forehead when constructing PAR/ALT PAR positions.
RELATED: The early-term relegation discussion and relevant betting odds via NBC Bet. (Actual Sportsbook cited here unknown)
REFERENCES
- Premier League dot com
- FB Ref dot com
- X
- Premier League on X
- PL Clubs on X
- Statman Dave on X
- Getty Images
- NBC Sports Bet
- NBC Sports Soccer
- Darkseid Sports Intelligence
- Sports Mole
- William Hill
- Fanduel
- CBS Sports App
- Wikipedia
Creator’s Note: The purveyor of Darkseid Sports has no affiliation, whatsoever, with any of the above athletes, managers, clubs, leagues, media entities, social media accounts and/or any other entity, either portrayed in written form or depicted in corresponding images. The author of this writing is a passionate and very serious Manchester United and Premier League fan.
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